Dancy Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

158
FXUS63 KGRB 101155
AFDGRB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
655 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers continue to morning, tapering off for the
  second half of the day.
- Mild temperatures the rest of the week with readings at or
  above normal.
- Additional rain chances Sunday night into Monday and later next
  week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 454 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Ongoing, scattered rain showers early this morning in association
with low level warm advection ahead of the surface cold front. Any
lightning has remained south/west of the GRB forecast area, but
with a small amount of instability and strong dynamics at play,
cannot rule out isolated thunder through the morning. S/SW winds
will be somewhat gusty ahead of the front this morning, especially
across marine areas where a Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect. The cold front passes through this morning and departs to
the east by early afternoon. This will bring an end to most of the
rain, but upper low across the Great Lakes will keep a small
chance of showers in the forecast through this evening, mainly for
eastern Wisconsin. Behind the front, winds switch to the NW and
remain gusty through this evening.
Added a very small chance showers to the lakeshore on Saturday as
northeast winds over the lake, and lingering upper low may produce
a few specks here and there. A couple of the CAMs were showing
this as well around midday Saturday.
Otherwise, continue to highlight another cold front coming through
late Sunday/Monday which will bring the next chance for precip
area wide. Models have slowed down through the midweek, keeping
surface high pressure in place for a bit longer, and mainly dry
weather Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances return for the end of
the week.
Temperatures will be slightly above normal through Monday with
highs mainly in the 60s, and lows in the 40s. Readings fall closer
to normal for the rest of next work week.
&&
.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 655 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Despite an approaching cold front and scattered showers, cloud
bases are around 4-7kft as of 1130Z. Not anticipating bases
getting any lower at this point, with some clearing farther west.
Therefore, mainly VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF
period. Scattered showers will persist through mid to late
morning, mainly for the eastern WI TAF sites. An isolated shower
cannot be ruled out this afternoon, but likelihood was too low to
include to TAF forecast. Meanwhile, clouds will become scattered
and then clear in central and north-central WI. Scattered clouds
will likely remain across eastern WI into Saturday, with some MVFR
cigs possible late tonight into Saturday.
Winds will gust to around 20 knots today, from the SW this
morning, veering NW this afternoon.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....KLJ
AVIATION.......KLJ

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion