283 FXUS66 KPDT 082131 AFDPDTArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 231 PM PDT Wed Oct 8 2025
.DISCUSSION...
A cu field was developing across the higher elevation mountain zones this afternoon. Some cirrus was also noted on visible satellite as well Yakima and Kittitas counties, but the bulk of the forecast area was sunny with light and variable surface winds. Satellite looked too obscured by cloud to see hotspots near the Labor Mountain and Wildcat fires, however the HRRR is modeling increased vertically integrated smoke this afternoon and evening with northward trajectories. Fire weather concerns are greatest immiedately east of the Cascades where the drier and lower relative humidity areas of the Columbia basin will be This afternoon and Thursday. Beyond Thursday, moisture profiles uptick enough to minimize fire weather categories.
The eastward advancing upper low will induce a N-S band of 850-700 mb fgen and vertical motion which the 12kmNAM ramps up after about 02z Thursday (This Evening). NBM probability for the eastern slopes and crests of the cascades to see wetting rain overnight are between 35 and 60%. Looking at the probability matched means from the HREF 6 hour QPF does show a couple of locations of favored 0.10-0.25 amount near the volcanoes, however a more broad signal of much less than 0.10 qpf is anticipated. This upper low will help focus showers across the Cascade range and its eastern slopes through the week before moving onshore late Friday into Friday night and spreading a more broad mid level lift across the eastern mountains. NBM Ensembles 50th percentile suggests 1 to 3 inches of snowfall possible across the Wallowas, Northern Blue, Ekhorn, Aldrich and Strawberry Mountains, and even higher amounts along the highest peaks of the Cascades. Along with the precipitation will be an increase in breezy to marginally windy conditions through the Gorge and Columbia Basin on Friday night. True windy conditions are likely to develop late Saturday and Saturday night across a more broad area into central Oregon as well with gusts approaching 40 mph. A 40 to 60 percent of gusts in excess of 40 mph are forecast by the NBM ensemble member for the Oregon Columbia basin Saturday evening. Russell/71
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.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1123 AM PDT Wed Oct 8 2025/
Updated for Aviation
AVIATION... 18Z TAFS...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Winds will generally be 10 kts or less, except at BDN and RDM, where they will see gusts to around 20 kts through late afternoon/early evening before winds decrease to 10 kts or less.
There is a chance (
NWS PDT Office Area Forecast Discussion