Crystal Beach, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

216
FXUS62 KTBW 250527
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
127 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Weak surface high pressure will hold over the forecast area today
with continued warm temperatures. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon with the best chance for
rain over the interior as weak boundary layer flow will allow the
west coast sea breeze boundary to push well inland this
afternoon.
An U/L trough and associated cold front will move over north
Florida on Friday with an increasing chance of
showers/thunderstorms across the nature coast. The frontal
boundary will stall across north central Florida Friday night and
Saturday with a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms,
with highest pops central and north.
The U/L pattern will become more complex Sunday and Monday as a
weak rex block develops over the eastern U.S. A potential
tropical system is expected to move just east or over the
Bahamas...moving somewhat parallel to the east coast of Florida.
The rex block (with the associated cut-off low over the southeast
U.S.) will likely play a key role in steering this system.
The U/L rex block will begin to break down mid week, with surface
high pressure building back over west central and southwest
Florida. Temperatures will run several degrees above climatic
normals through the period. A chance of an afternoon shower or
thunderstorm each day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
SCT LCL BKN040 vcnty PIE/TPA/LAL for the next couple of hours,
otherwise skies predominately becoming SCT250 the remainder of the
night. On Thursday, daytime heating will generate SCT LCL
BKN030-040 with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms
developing vcnty of all terminals with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR
VSBYs. The best chance of an afternoon thunderstorm will be at
LAL.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Increasing chance of showers/thunderstorms across the northern
waters Friday through Saturday associated with a weak frontal
boundary. High pressure will build back over the waters on Sunday
and into early next week with low pops each day. Gradient will
remain rather weak through the period with winds and seas below
cautionary levels.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1203 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
No fire weather hazards are expected through early next week as
sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity
values well above critical levels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  78  90  78 /  30  20  40  30
FMY  91  76  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
GIF  93  75  92  75 /  50  20  50  20
SRQ  90  76  89  75 /  30  20  30  30
BKV  91  72  90  71 /  30  20  50  40
SPG  89  78  87  77 /  30  20  40  30
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 1
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Hurt
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion