Crichton, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

461
FXUS61 KRNK 260952
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
552 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front has crossed the mountains and is expected to stall
just southeast of the forecast area today. A wave of low
pressure is forecast to develop along the front tonight, and
remain stalled over the mid-atlantic region through the weekend
providing an opportunity for rain, especially along and east of
the mountains. A tropical system is expected to develop over the
Bahamas this weekend, then move north to along the South
Carolina coast Monday. Depending on the track of this storm,
additional rainfall would become possible early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...
Key Message:
1) Lull in shower activity expected today
2) Rain chances increase tonight
A cold front has crossed the mountains and is expected to stall
over the eastern piedmont and/or tidewater of the eastern Mid-
Atlantic today. A subtle wind shift has taken place but the
surface dewpoint change is lagging with shallow convection
still present on the western slopes of the Appalachians. In
spite of this upstream activity, the deeper moisture has
shifted to eastern VA/NC where healthier showers/storms still
ongoing east of our forecast area. For the most part little or
no precip was occurring across the CWA and this trend should
generally hold for the remainder of the morning.
Mid-level drying in the wake of the frontal passage should keep
most of the CWA relatively dry today. As we heat up, shallow
convection should develop with widely scattered showers this
afternoon. Debris clouds may offset the heating so not overly
confident for much thunderstorm activity, but convective
allowing models (CAMS) do show some development over the
southern Blue Ridge between Floyd and Boone after 3PM and over
the piedmont this evening...all of which is expected to expand
in coverage tonight.
Concern tonight is the development of a wave of low pressure
along the stalled surface front in response to the upper trough
becoming cutoff over the southern Appalachians. The cutoff
low/circulation is expected to slowly lift north across the
forecast area with CAMS showing an expansion of showers and
thunderstorms during the overnight, essentially evolving from
whatever activity develops later today but becoming more
prolific from south to north during the overnight tonight.
Some degree of upslope flow, winds becoming easterly, should
bring some of the higher moisture (PWATs in excess of 2 inches)
back in from the southeast. This suggests showers will be very
rain efficient which could yield hourly rain amounts to 2.5" and
local totals to 4"... both the 00z HREF and 18z REFS had their
strongest signal for 3"+ and 5"+ across far southwest VA and the
western Carolinas. As such, the Weather Prediction Center has
highlighted a large portion of our forecast area, upgrading to a
Slight Risk, for excessive rainfall. We will closely monitor
model trends and potential need for a Flood Watch for parts of
the forecast area for tonight and early Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 430 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
1) Showers expected Saturday and to a lesser degree Sunday.
2) Temperatures will be cooler, but close to normal.
Looking at the weekend as a whole, Saturday looks like the
wetter day. We may end up with a lull Sunday before dealing with
any potential tropical impacts next week.
For Saturday, divergence aloft around the eastern periphery of
a cold low near the Southern Appalachians is expected to
provide for numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms... a
cloudy wet day featuring a high likelihood for measurable
rainfall, the need for rain gear and a headache for outdoor fall
events. Rain could be heavy at times, and will continue into
the overnight hours Saturday night. Severe weather is not likely
due to limited instability from heavy cloud cover, but will
continue to entertain potential for localized excessive rainfall
and potential for flooding.
Sunday will continue to see shower/storm chances, but paired
down compared to Saturday, and mainly associated with the
diurnal heating cycle with occurrence during the afternoon and
evening, and scattered in nature.
Rain amounts through the weekend, including what falls Friday
night are expected to range from 1-2" with up to 4 inches along
the Blue Ridge and possibly the Piedmont. Due to the dry
antecedent conditions this will be much needed rainfall. Still
can`t rule out potential for isolated flash flooding due to the
high rain rates and potential for showers to train over the same
area. Urban areas and areas with steep terrain will be most
susceptible to faster runoff.
Temperatures will remain on the cool side due to heavy cloud
cover Saturday...highs in 60s mountains and low to mid 70s
piedmont. Add a few degrees to these numbers for Sunday for
breaks in the cloud cover. Overnight lows stay mild but
consistent, in the upper 50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 500 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
1) Invest 94L may impact our area early next week.
2) Rain chances continue each day, rainfall could be heavy.
3) Cool temperatures persist due to heavy cloud cover.
The southwest Atlantic is being closely monitored for the
development of a tropical cyclone which would impact the
southeast Atlantic Coast early next week. Invest 94L has a 90%
chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the Bahamas then
track north toward the South Carolina coast by Monday. Models
are consistent until it reaches that point but then diverge in
solutions beyond F72...or 72 hours after the current forecast
cycle from 00Z Friday. While there is uncertainty in the long-
range track, the chances of wind, rainfall, and storm surge
impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast are
increasing. For our forecast area the impacts would be focused
on the rainfall with timing of influence in the Monday through
Wednesday time frame.
Given the uncertainty, our forecast will reflect rain potential
from Monday through Wednesday before trending drier. There is
potential for a excessive rainfall and flooding, so for those
that want/need to plan early, this is your heads-up to put your
plan into action. Low lying areas and those that live near
streams or flood plains should monitor the forecast closely.
It is too early to provide a reasonable impact statement for a
storm that has not even developed yet. There are still a lot of
questions to be answered with respect to how the storm will be
influenced once it does develop...e.g. does hurricane Humberto
effect it`s steering winds or does the cold core low over the
Appalachians act as a sink to lull the storm inland from the
coast. That being said, more data is being gathered to
supplementthe models. The National Weather Service has doubled
the daily number of weather balloon releases for the upper air
stations in the southeast CONUS...input that should aid in the
model output going forward.
As for the temperature forecast next week. The numbers will be
highly influenced by cloud cover and precip. For the time being,
hedging toward the cooler guidance with focus on heavy cloud
cover persisting through Wednesday. Based on this prognosis
thinking highs in the 60s/70s each day and lows in the 50s/60s
early in the week, before falling late week into the 40s/50s.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 545 AM EDT Friday...
Sub-VFR conditions are forecast this morning with areas of fog
and stratus. Expect improving conditions after 10AM/14Z. Think
most of the late morning and afternoon will be dry with cloud
bases trending into VFR category. Late afternoon and evening
showers are expected to blossom over the southern Blue Ridge in
the western Carolinas and piedmont. This shower activity is
expected to expand northward tonight with cloud bases and vsbys
trending lower after sunset. Winds are expected to be light and
variable.
Confidence in this forecast is moderate.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Cutoff low over the southern Appalachians is expected to produce
widespread rain over the region tonight, Saturday, and Saturday
night, with embedded heavier showers and thunderstorms. Sub-VFR
is likely with potential for IFR/LIFR and ridge obscurations.
Improvement is expected Sunday, then a big question mark for
early next week as influence of our weather will be contingent
on what develops in the tropics. Confidence is increasing of
Invest 94L becoming a tropical storm and heading into the
mainland by early next week. If this occurs then expect sub-VFR
and potential for rain to persist through the middle of next
week.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PM

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion