Covington Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

027
FXUS64 KLIX 121707
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1207 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1054 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
- Dry weather will persist through the upcoming work week, with
   no significant weather impacts expected.
- Temperatures steadily warm back up this upcoming week, reaching
   around 5 to 7 degrees above normal with highs in the mid to
   upper 80`s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1054 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
We`ve got yet another absolutely gorgeous day today thanks to a
recent frontal boundary passage, with plenty of dry air filtering
into the area. On the surface charts this morning, high pressure
dominates a large portion of the east-central and eastern US, with
a developing coastal low across the Carolina coastline promoting
persistent and continuous reinforcing dry air into the
southeastern US. The 12Z KLIX RAOB illustrates the depth of the
dry air well, with a strong low/mid-level subsidence inversion
aloft and overall very warm thermal profile by compressional
warming. Below the inversion, a strong/deep dry-aidiabaitc mixed
layer remains in place which, after we continue to warm up, will
allow for dewpoints to drop quickly. This was a pretty typical
target of opportunity against inherited blended guidance to drop
dewpoints into a blend of the 10th/25th percentile to account for
a high confidence PBL mixing regime. No adjustments to highs, as
guidance appears in good agreement topping out in the low to mid
80`s.
It`s lows tomorrow that needed a bit more focus, as MinT`s this
morning definitely dropped cooler than most guidance. Verification
reveals that temperatures this morning ranged between the
10th/25th percentile for the NBM guidance. Went ahead and applied
this same low bias for tonight to capture this trend, as we`ll see
another night of strong radiational cooling, thus also hit the
typical drainage basins including the Pearl River and Pascagoula
basin more directly at the 10th percentile, which brings these
areas into the low 50`s. Not as cool for the southshore thanks to
the weak northerly flow modifying over the (still) warmer lakes.
Highs to slowly crawl warmer starting Monday into the mid to upper
80`s, again no big adjustments needed here as guidance is in good
agreement that we`ll be ranging 5 to 7 degrees above normal,
persisting for most of the upcoming week.
Additionally, did apply a HRRR blend into the NBM for afternoon
winds today and tomorrow to account for a weak seabreeze boundary
following surface heating/maximized land/sea temp differential.
However, will be slow to advect north given weak northerly flow
but may relax some Monday and Tuesday to allow for a more
northward track thru each afternoon. KLG
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1054 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Continued the low-bias in guidance for lows Tuesday morning, just
not as aggressive more towards the deterministic/25th percentile
which still brings lows in the mid to upper 50`s (low 50`s still
for drainage basins). The main story will be the warmer afternoon
temps remaining above average and staying bone dry all week. We
do begin to see surface/low-level winds transition out of the east
to eventual southeast later in the week as high pressure drifts
east into New England, and we reside more on the southern to
southwestern periphery of the large/broad high pressure region.
This will drag dewpoints up steadily with time, making it feel not
as dry but still enough to mix out plenty each afternoon.
Next weekend, long-range guidance is hinting at our next front and
potential rain maker somewhere across the southeast, primarily
late in the weekend into early next week. Taking a look at cluster
analysis to identify ensemble field similarities reveals one key
item - low confidence. Spread is large likely given uncertainties
on longwave trough evolution/strength developing over the central
US. GEFS, EPS and CMCE guidance appear almost equally deriving
slightly different scenarios which will determine the extent of
rain chances and post-front cooldown we`ll see. Again, something
to monitor, as we could see "something" leading to a change in the
pattern (cool down, rain, etc - in some capacity). Will keep an
eye on it. KLG
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1054 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
VFR conditions can be expected for all area terminals through the
forecast period. Will monitor the potential for brief light
ground/sfc FG for a few terminals Monday morning, mainly along and
west of I-55 including KMCB, KBTR, KHDC and KHUM that may briefly
drop flight categories between 11-13Z, but will quickly improve
shortly after sunrise. Low confidence/impact for now, but will
monitor. KLG
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1054 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Northerly offshore flow will persist today thru early/mid-week
thanks to high pressure over the eastern US and developing low off
the Carolina coast. This will keep conditions benign with light
waves/seas and winds, as well as dry conditions. East to east-
southeast flow does pick up some mid/late week, ranging 10 to 15
knots but will remain low impact and mainly dry into next weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  84  55  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  86  58  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  84  55  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  85  64  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  83  60  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  84  54  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLG
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...KLG

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion