Covington, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

051
FXUS61 KILN 291043
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
643 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will lead to dry and mild conditions through the
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley weakens slightly
today as pressures decrease to the southeast. Light northeasterly
flow is expected this afternoon with some scattered cumulus. Across
the east, some cirrus spreading from the south will occur. Otherwise,
the quiet pattern is forecast to remain, with high temperatures once
again in the mid to upper 80s, well above normal for this time of
year.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
Tonight, a stronger high pressure descending through southeast
Canada begins to compress the pressure gradient over the Ohio Valley.
Light northeast winds remains along with mostly clear sky
conditions. Some mid and upper level clouds persist across the
eastern potions of the forecast area.
Expect a noticeable northeast wind Tuesday afternoon as the strong
high pressure to north continues to move closer to the region. This
northeast wind will bring in air originating from a cooler region,
allowing for subtle drop in the afternoon high temperatures, however,
it will still be very warm. This effect will be felt more in the
following days.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level high pressure ridge west of the region to begin the
period translates eastward over the weekend but still keeps an axis
near or over the CWA through Saturday. Then it positions itself along
the East Coast with southwest flow in the Ohio Valley Sat night and
Sunday that lasts through the end of the forecast. GFS brings s/w
energy through on Mon, sparking some rain ssw of the CWA but this is
overridden by the other drier models.
At the surface, high pressure moves east and a drier and slightly
cooler airmass works in. Cooler in the sense that upper 80s are not
expected and lows drop below the upper 50s.
The temperature trend for overnight lows drops from the 50s Tues
night, dropping to the lowest expected values in the upper 40s to
lower 50s Wed night. Then they slowly creep into the lower 50s
through Sat night and warm into the mid-upper 50s Sun night.
Looking at daytime highs, readings within 2-3 deg of 80 look to be
the general rule. Thursday will be the coolest of the period with
highs 77-80, then the remainder of the forecast uniformly maxes out
between 79-82.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No major changes from the 06Z TAFs. Prevailing VFR through the TAF
forecast period, with KLUK remaining the exception.
Winds over the next couple of afternoon will be prevailing
northeasterly around 6 to 9 knots before going light and variable
during the overnights. Cloud cover will consist of afternoon cumulus,
and upper level cirrus spreading westward from a system to the
southeast.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...McGinnis

NWS ILN Office Area Forecast Discussion