Cortland, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

912
FXUS61 KBGM 080548
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
148 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cool airmass will be in place through tonight, which will
result in below normal temperatures. Areas of frost will be
possible tonight, especially in the sheltered valleys and usual
colder locations. Temperatures will gradually warm up a bit the
remainder of the week beginning on Tuesday. Otherwise, this
week will feature dry weather and plenty of sunshine.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
145 AM Update:
A cool airmass will continue to be in place today with 850mb
temperatures only around +3C to +5C. Immediately downwind of
Lake Ontario, a few lake effect clouds and light rain showers
are present early this morning, but these will be dissipating
around or just after daybreak with high pressure moving in.
Elsewhere, skies are mainly clear and with light winds,
radiational cooling has allowed temperatures to fall into the
40s and upper 30s in some spots. A few of the usual colder spots
may see some patchy frost by daybreak this morning, but coverage
is not high enough for Frost Advisories. Otherwise, the
remainder of today will be mostly sunny with highs in the mid
60s to lower 70s.
Tonight will be an ideal setup for radiational cooling with the
high pressure system directly overhead resulting in clear skies
and light winds. Continued to go below the NBM (National Blend
of Models) for forecast lows tonight, especially in the valleys.
Forecast lows are in the mid 30s to mid 40s. While unlikely at
this time, cannot totally rule out a few freezing/32 degree low
temperatures in far northern Oneida County. While the potential
for a freeze is quite low, the potential for frost is not. Areas
of frost are expected to develop across northern Oneida County
tonight, as well as parts of the Catskills and sheltered valleys
of Central NY and the Northern Tier of PA. Confidence in seeing
widespread frost is highest across northern Oneida County and
therefore issued a Frost Advisory for 2AM-8AM Tuesday there
after coordinating with WFOs ALY and BUF. It is possible that
Frost Advisories may need to be expanded southward on today`s
day shift, especially across some of our Catskills counties. In
addition to the frost, valley fog is expected late tonight/early
Tuesday morning, as is typical for this time of the year.
After a chilly start to the day on Tuesday, temperatures will
rebound nicely as the high pressure system moves off to the
east and results in a southeasterly return flow. Highs on
Tuesday are expected to be in the lower to mid 70s with sunny
skies.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
145 AM Update:
Another decent radiational cooling night is expected Tuesday
night, but temperatures will likely be a few degrees warmer than
tonight with a slightly warmer airmass in place. Lows are
expected to be in the upper 30s to upper 40s under mostly clear
skies aside from valley fog once again. Cannot rule out a few
spots of patchy frost Tuesday night, but coverage is not
expected to be nearly as widespread as tonight.
Otherwise, the remainder of the short term period will feature
gradual warming conditions and rain-free/mostly sunny weather
as high pressure will be in control. After highs in the 70s
area-wide on Wednesday, mid to upper 70s are expected for highs
on Thursday. A few spots in the valleys (especially Northeast
PA) may even approach 80 degrees, but with dewpoints in the
upper 40s to lower 50s, it will not be humid at all.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
145 AM Update:
The long term period gets a little bit more uncertain in terms
of if it remains completely rain-free, or if a weak disturbance
may bring some light rain showers to the area. Either way, the
weather pattern looks rather benign/low impact all the way
through the weekend. If scattered rain showers were to work its
way into the region, this likely wouldn`t occur until Saturday
night or Sunday, but chances are very low at this time.
Otherwise, temperatures on Friday will be slightly cooler after
the passage of a dry cold front, with highs in the upper 60s to
mid 70s. Temperatures then moderate once again for Saturday and
Sunday with widespread 70s expected for highs.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours at all
terminals but ELM. Fog likely develops tonight with LIFR fog
starting shortly and lasting until around 13Z. Once the fog
lifts out of the valley, VFR conditions is expected through at
least 6z tomorrow.
Outlook...
Tuesday afternoon through Friday...Mainly VFR. Valley fog each
late night/early morning at KELM will likely bring restrictions.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ009.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...AJG

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion