Conejo, California Weather Forecast Discussion

938
FXUS66 KHNX 270916
AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
216 AM PDT Sat Sep 27 2025
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Thunderstorm chances continue this afternoon into this
evening with probabilities in the 15 to 35% range, decreasing to
15 to 25% on Sunday and then again to 10 to 20% on Monday.
Chances for thunderstorms fall below 10% by Tuesday and remain
there through the week.
2. A Marginal Risk (at least 5%) of excessive rainfall returns
today along the Sierra Nevada mountains and into the Foothills
and much of eastern Kern County.
3. A cooling of temperatures is expected to begin tomorrow and
continue through at least Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The lingering low pressure system will continue to bring
increased thunderstorm probabilities across the Sierra Nevada
and the Kern County mountains and desert. These probabilities
are currently in the 15 to 35 percentage range for this
afternoon, with the highest chances for development around the
southern Sierra Nevada and over the Kern County mountains from
2pm through 5pm. These chances are expected to decrease slightly
to the 15 to 30% range on Sunday as the cut-off low is pushed
out and weakened by an incoming Pacific trough. They will also
shift north and are expected to be concentrated mainly along
the Sierra Nevada and not so much the Kern County mountains.
This pattern will continue into Monday, as well, with chances
decreasing slightly again to the 10 to 20% range and moving
further north, this time mainly around Yosemite National Park.
There is also a Marginal Risk (at least 5%) of excessive
rainfall this afternoon along with the expected thunderstorms in
the Sierra Nevada and much of eastern Kern County. This risk is
expected to not continue past this afternoon due to limited
moisture from the incoming trough and not being supplied by the
cut-off low bringing up tropical moisture.
Moving into Tuesday, thunderstorm chances fall below 10% as the
Pacific trough moves inland and it loses most of its energy and
the cut-off low is weakened and pushed east. The region will
then be influenced by the underside of another trough centered
in the Northwest. This will lead to fairly steady temperatures
that are slightly below normal to continue through at least
Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z Update:
A 15-35 percent chance of thunderstorms from 18Z Saturday
through 03Z Sunday will exist across the Sierra Nevada and into
the Kern County mountains and Desert. Otherwise, VFR conditions
expected for the next 24 hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
EW
weather.gov/hanford

NWS HNX Office Area Forecast Discussion