Columbus, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

351
FXUS64 KEPZ 172329
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
529 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 527 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- Thunderstorms remain in the forecast for through Friday,
   favoring northern and western areas through Thursday and
   becoming areawide Friday.
- Moisture levels trend down for the weekend, allowing for
   lowering storm chances into next week.
- Temperatures remain near normal this week with a warm-up over
   the weekend with near record highs possible early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Above normal moisture remains over the region with weak flow aloft
between low to our north and ridge extending to the NW. We will
still have some convection this afternoon into the evening, but
cloud cover across the southern half of the region will likely
limit coverage. There will be some lower and mid level moisture
across the area overnight and a couple disturbances moving out of
AZ during the overnight hours. Feel like there`s enough moisture
around that these disturbances will be enough to keep isolated
showers and maybe a thunderstorm going over the west. The upper
level feature moving into the SW overnight will slowly progress
east across the area Thu and bring a better chance for storms east
of the RGV than today. NBM temps seemed too warm in the mid to
upper 80s given expected cloud cover and H85 temps. MET and MAV
temps looked more reasonable in the lower to mid 80s so did lower
several degrees, especially east.
Going into Fri, there will be a weak ridge axis moving over the
area, but a disturbance again moving out of AZ on the back side of
the ridge will bring a last round of storms to the entire area.
Moisture will be in place and some areas could see some locally
heavy rainfall, but mid level flow does increase out of the west
and storm motion should be much quicker than what we are currently
seeing.
Going into the weekend there may be a stray mountain shower around
but do not expect much. Upper ridge will begin building off to the
west with NW flow bringing in drier air. Temperatures will be on
the rise as well with highs getting back into the lower to mid 90s
by Sunday and remaining there through at least Tuesday. It will
feel like we are back in March on Sunday with some breezy WNW
winds picking up. Record highs for KELP are 97 or 98 for early
next week, so tying or breaking a record by a degree or two is not
out of the question. Some differences show up on the handling of
how a blocking pattern develops by midweek. There will be a ridge
off to the west with an upper low stalling out over the Midwest.
Depending on how far west the upper low pushes, there will be some
kind of temperature gradient nearby. Model trends are for it
moving further west which would start to cool temps down over at
least eastern zones, but for now kept close to the NBM temps.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
VFR conditions expected through the period. VCSH and -RA possible
over the next few hours at KELP and KTCS. This activity will
diminish after 01-02Z, giving way to SCT to BKN skies. CIGS will
vary with SCT at 10-15kft and BKN at 20-25kft. Winds will remain
generally light through the period at 5-10 knots, becoming VRB in
direction after sunset.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Plenty of moisture will remain over the area through Friday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms over area mountains each day.
Isolated storms for the lowlands through Thursday, but will be
more widespread on Friday. Northwest flow develops over the region
going into the weekend which will bring in some much drier air.
Temperatures by Sunday will be into the lower to mid 90s for the
lowlands with RH`s falling into the teens almost everywhere except
the Sacs by Monday. Winds will be light through Saturday but
Sunday will see some breeziness but speeds will remain below
critical thresholds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  68  84  67  89 /  20  20  20  10
Sierra Blanca            63  80  59  85 /  20  30  20  20
Las Cruces               64  83  61  85 /  20  20  20  30
Alamogordo               63  83  61  86 /  10  30  20  30
Cloudcroft               47  62  46  62 /  10  50  20  50
Truth or Consequences    63  83  61  81 /  20  20  20  50
Silver City              58  79  56  78 /  30  40  40  70
Deming                   63  84  62  87 /  20  30  30  40
Lordsburg                64  85  62  84 /  20  40  30  50
West El Paso Metro       68  83  68  88 /  20  20  20  20
Dell City                62  83  61  87 /  10  30  20  10
Fort Hancock             66  85  67  90 /  20  30  20  20
Loma Linda               61  78  61  81 /  20  30  20  20
Fabens                   66  83  67  90 /  20  20  20  10
Santa Teresa             65  83  64  87 /  20  20  20  20
White Sands HQ           65  82  64  85 /  20  30  20  30
Jornada Range            64  83  62  84 /  20  30  20  40
Hatch                    64  85  62  87 /  20  30  30  40
Columbus                 64  85  64  88 /  20  30  30  20
Orogrande                61  85  61  85 /  20  30  20  30
Mayhill                  51  73  52  72 /  10  50  20  50
Mescalero                50  75  51  75 /  20  50  20  50
Timberon                 50  71  49  71 /  20  40  20  40
Winston                  53  78  50  75 /  30  30  30  70
Hillsboro                59  82  57  83 /  30  30  30  60
Spaceport                62  84  60  83 /  20  20  20  50
Lake Roberts             52  79  53  78 /  30  50  40  80
Hurley                   60  80  57  80 /  30  40  40  60
Cliff                    59  81  56  83 /  30  40  40  70
Mule Creek               57  79  54  80 /  20  40  30  70
Faywood                  60  80  58  80 /  30  40  30  50
Animas                   63  85  61  85 /  30  40  30  50
Hachita                  63  84  61  85 /  30  40  30  40
Antelope Wells           63  84  60  85 /  30  40  30  40
Cloverdale               61  80  58  80 /  30  50  30  50
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...38-Rogers

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion