Coleman, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

972
FXUS62 KTBW 210716
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
316 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Weak upper level troughing will remain over the eastern U.S.
through midweek, then a deepening trough will setup late in the
week into next weekend. Meanwhile near the surface, high pressure
will continue to ridge down along the eastern seaboard early in
the week with a low level east to northeast flow across the area.
By midweek, a cold front will move into the eastern U.S.
suppressing the ridge south across the Florida peninsula with the
low level flow becoming rather light and eventually south to
southwest. The frontal boundary will move south into the Florida
peninsula next weekend with a low level southwest to west flow
persisting.
For most of today we`ll continue to see rather dry conditions, but
later in the afternoon into this evening as the east coast sea
breeze moves west we could see a few showers and possibly a
thunderstorm pop up from around Sarasota to Sebring south. Any
convection that does develop will move well out into the gulf
overnight.
For Monday and Tuesday deeper moisture will gradually spread north
with isolated convection north to numerous over the southern
interior and southwest Florida during each afternoon and evening.
During midweek a rather light south to southwest flow will setup
across the area and with enough moisture in place we`ll continue
to see isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms, with the highest PoPs over the interior and
inland southwest Florida.
Late in the week into next weekend an increased southwesterly flow
will setup as the frontal boundary moves south. There will still
be enough moisture across the region for scattered convection each
day, with the highest chances over the interior and eastern half
of the Florida peninsula during each afternoon and evening.
However, with the southwest flow increasing coastal areas could
begin to see a few late night and morning showers and
thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF forecast
period. A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm could develop
later this afternoon and evening and affect the southwest Florida
TAF sites of PGD, FMY, and RSW, causing some brief MVFR/local IFR
conditions. East to northeast winds at 5 to 10 knots will
continue, except shifting to northerly near the coast during the
late afternoon and early evening as the west coast sea breeze
tries to develop.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Northeast to east winds 15 knots or less will continue over the
waters through midweek with winds turning onshore near the coast
as the sea breeze tries to develop each afternoon and evening.
Drier air will hold over the waters today, then moisture will
gradually increase leading to isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms for much of the week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Drier air will hold over the region through today, then moisture will
begin to increase during Monday and Tuesday leading to increased rain
chances. Relative humidity values are expected to remain above
critical levels each day with winds less than 15 mph, except gusty
and erratic winds possible in the vicinity of showers and
thunderstorms. Higher dispersions will be in place today.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  76  91  76 /  10  10  30  10
FMY  92  75  90  75 /  30  20  60  30
GIF  92  74  92  74 /  10   0  40  10
SRQ  92  74  90  74 /  10  20  40  20
BKV  92  70  91  71 /  10   0  30  10
SPG  90  76  89  76 /  10  10  30  10
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
    https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
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