Clifton Highlands Golf Course Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

475
FXUS63 KMPX 131919
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
219 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet today and tonight, isolated showers possible in
southwestern MN Tuesday morning.
- Scattered showers in southern MN Tuesday evening, with on & off
chances throughout the rest of the week.
- Temperatures remain seasonable in the 50s and 60s with lows in the
40s this week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
There is little more we could ask for on a Monday in October with
mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures generally in the 50s with a
few low 60s out there through 2pm. A broad cold front is moving
through eastern WI with a broad area of cloud cover off to the east,
with a lobe of high pressure dominating the local weather through
the rest of today keeping us relatively clear. Cloud cover will
begin to increase out of the southwest this evening and overnight as
low level warm air advection increases to the south of the center of
high pressure over northern Minnesota, with isolated showers
possible after midnight through sunrise southwest of the Minnesota
River. Forecast soundings from the RAP/HRRR are relatively dry in
the lower levels and saturated just above the WAA layer such that
much of this may end up as virga until the lower levels saturate,
which is not expected to happen until the evening tomorrow per
forecast soundings. There is solid agreement among the suite of CAMs
and global models regarding scattered to widespread showers forming
Tuesday evening and continuing into Wednesday due to not only the
low level WAA but also some mid level shortwave energy passing
through what is otherwise zonal flow south of the surface high
pressure. Rain chances will be highest away from the strongest
subsidence present over northern Minnesota, thus southern MN has
overall higher chances than the central part of the state. Rain
amounts will vary quite a bit due to the showery nature of the
precipitation, with the highest amounts possible between 0.25-0.5
inches but most likely ranging near 0.1 to 0.2``.
The surface high pressure moves off over the Great Lakes midweek
with a surface low pressure system developing ahead of a trough over
the central Rockies pushing northwards along upper level southerly
flow, with decent model agreement keeping the primary low pressure
center to the west of Minnesota by Thursday pushing northwards
towards the ND/MN/Canadian border by Friday morning. This sets up
another zone of WAA east of the cold front and south of the warm
front, however due to how rapidly the system moves northwards this
activity will likely be more isolated than a typical frontal zone
with the main symptom being highs reaching near 70 on Thursday and
Friday and a low in the upper 50s to near 60 Friday morning. The
global deterministic models and ensemble guidance show showery rain
chances through much of Thursday into Friday with the upper level
low occluding late Friday into Saturday leaving us with only wrap-
around drizzle type showers into Saturday. The upper level occlusion
and surface low then get pushed out of the area by a return to zonal
upper level flow by the end of the weekend and into early next week
with quieter weather returning alongside seasonal temperatures.
Overall, we will have a few rounds of showers throughout the week
but are not expecting significant impacts due to thunderstorms with
winds a bit stronger as the system is moving through Thursday into
Friday but nothing significant enough to cause major issues (less
than 25mph). The trend of a slightly wetter pattern is welcome as we
were dry for a significant portion of September and need to take
advantage of any moisture we can get before we start to freeze
overnight more frequently later in the Fall season.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
VFR expected through the entire period with clear skies through
this afternoon. Mid-level clouds start to build in from the
southwest tonight into Tuesday morning. There will be an
increasing chance of isolated to scattered rain showers by the
end of the period but confidence is not high enough to include a
PROB30 in the TAF at this time. I would expect the addition of
PROB30s for the 00Z issuance if confidence on timing/placement
increases. Northwesterly winds will stay steady aob 10 knots
through this afternoon before decreasing to aob 5 knots tonight.
Winds gradually turn northerly this evening and northeasterly by
Tuesday sunrise.
KMSP... I have included a PROB30 for -SHRA/6SM vsby Tuesday
afternoon. Hires models develop showers mid to late morning
across the region that should saturate the column to support
light rain showers beginning early Tuesday afternoon.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Chc -RA/MVFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
THU...VFR. Chc -RA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc -RA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15G25kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...BPH

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion