Clarkson, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

153
FXUS61 KBUF 240650
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
250 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A wave of low pressure will bring the next round of showers
today and into tonight, with unsettle weather lasting into
Thursday. A few showers may linger into Friday, before high
pressure builds in bringing dry weather for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main concern into the early morning hours will be low stratus
and some patchy dense fog. Area ASOS ob`s show some lower vsbys
(< 1 mile) across the S. Tier, Finger Lake region, and east of
Lake Ontario (KART/KGTB). For now...will continue to monitor it,
but if fog continues to spread we could need a headline.
Otherwise...fairly quite weather across the area which should hold
until the next sfc wave of low pressure nears the region later
today. Increasing moisture/lift ahead of the low will bring
increasing chances for showers, possibly even a few embedded rumbles
of thunder. That said...cloud cover should limit the amount of
instability being able to build this afternoon, with guidance
showing < 600 J/Kg around peak heating. Therefore...not
expecting any SVR storms at the moment. The bigger threat might
be locally heavy rainfall with PW values above 1.5" but any
rainfall should be welcomed given the recent dry spell across
the area.
Tonight...the weak sfc wave moves into and across the area with a
slug of deep moisture moving northeast through the region. This
should be the best shot to see widespread showers, even a few
embedded rumbles of thunder as the low slowly rotates through
the Lower Lakes. As the LLJ exits off to our northeast late
tonight, we should see the heaviest precipitation move out.
After that...much of the area will see just some lingering
showers or even areas of drizzle/fog by Thursday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave trough moving across central Canada will dislodge a
closed low over the Central Great Lakes Wednesday night. The closed
low will open and the trough will move across the eastern Great
Lakes region through the end of the work week.
A corridor of deep moisture will span the eastern Great Lakes region
as the region remains on the lee side of the mid-level trough axis
Thursday. A broad area of low pressure is expected to move northward
from the Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes region, and
showers and a few thunderstorms are possible. There is high
uncertainty in the track of the surface and 850mb low and model
output ranges from a little to a beneficial rain. Using an ensemble
mean of MSLP, the low is expected to move over Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario, and a warm front may move northward into the area Thursday
afternoon. The probability of showers and thunderstorms is higher
east of the Genesee Valley Thursday. The mid-level trough axis is
expected to move across the forecast area Thursday night. Upper
level moisture will move east, however forecast soundings show low
level moisture remaining across the region. Drizzle and low clouds
are likely Thursday night.
Surface high pressure is expected to move into the Ohio Valley
Friday, while the mid-level trough continues to move east of the
forecast area. Dry weather is expected Friday through Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure and a building ridge are expected across the
region this weekend. Mean 500mb heights show a weak mid-level low
over the southern Appalachians with a potential a low approaching
the Carolinas. Mostly dry weather is expected across the forecast
area this weekend, however can`t rule out diurnal showers Saturday
afternoon with a potential plume of moisture to our southeast.
Ridging remains across the region into next work week and mostly dry
weather is expected.
Temperatures look to remain above normal into next week.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Areas of fog will bring lower vsbys with IFR/LIFR at area terminals
through this morning. This will especially be the case across the
S.Tier (KJHW), Finger Lakes region, and east of Lake Ontario
(KART/KGTB).
LIFR/IFR fog will improve slowly through the morning hours. After
that...mainly VFR will be found at area TAF sites. Scattered showers
and a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible later in the day
as the weak sfc wave approaches from the Ohio Valley.
Tonight...the weak sfc wave will enter the region with showers
and a few embedded rumbles of thunder. Area terminals will see
deteriorating conditions with MVFR to IFR/LIFR conditions.
Outlook...
Thursday...MVFR/IFR with showers and a chance of a thunderstorm.
Friday...VFR/MVFR with a few showers.
Saturday through Sunday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak low pressure approaching from the Ohio Valley will turn winds
northeasterly and may increase up to 15 knots on western Lake
Ontario, creating a moderate chop there, while elsewhere speeds
should remain under 15 knots. As the low passes across the area
tonight and Thursday, winds will initially freshen out of the
southeast before veering southwest through the day as the low moves
by just to our northwest. Winds shift westerly Thursday night and
Friday as the low moves northeast of the region. Although there will
be periods of light to moderate chop, conditions are not expected to
reach Small Craft Advisory criteria through Friday. Sfc high
pressure passes by to the north Friday night and then off into the
Canadian maritimes Saturday. Light winds and wave action will
prevail as we head into the weekend.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR/JM

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion