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Clarkson, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

153
FXUS61 KBUF 240650
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 250 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS... A wave of low pressure will bring the next round of showers today and into tonight, with unsettle weather lasting into Thursday. A few showers may linger into Friday, before high pressure builds in bringing dry weather for the weekend.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main concern into the early morning hours will be low stratus and some patchy dense fog. Area ASOS ob`s show some lower vsbys (< 1 mile) across the S. Tier, Finger Lake region, and east of Lake Ontario (KART/KGTB). For now...will continue to monitor it, but if fog continues to spread we could need a headline.

Otherwise...fairly quite weather across the area which should hold until the next sfc wave of low pressure nears the region later today. Increasing moisture/lift ahead of the low will bring increasing chances for showers, possibly even a few embedded rumbles of thunder. That said...cloud cover should limit the amount of instability being able to build this afternoon, with guidance showing < 600 J/Kg around peak heating. Therefore...not expecting any SVR storms at the moment. The bigger threat might be locally heavy rainfall with PW values above 1.5" but any rainfall should be welcomed given the recent dry spell across the area.

Tonight...the weak sfc wave moves into and across the area with a slug of deep moisture moving northeast through the region. This should be the best shot to see widespread showers, even a few embedded rumbles of thunder as the low slowly rotates through the Lower Lakes. As the LLJ exits off to our northeast late tonight, we should see the heaviest precipitation move out. After that...much of the area will see just some lingering showers or even areas of drizzle/fog by Thursday morning.

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.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A shortwave trough moving across central Canada will dislodge a closed low over the Central Great Lakes Wednesday night. The closed low will open and the trough will move across the eastern Great Lakes region through the end of the work week.

A corridor of deep moisture will span the eastern Great Lakes region as the region remains on the lee side of the mid-level trough axis Thursday. A broad area of low pressure is expected to move northward from the Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes region, and showers and a few thunderstorms are possible. There is high uncertainty in the track of the surface and 850mb low and model output ranges from a little to a beneficial rain. Using an ensemble mean of MSLP, the low is expected to move over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, and a warm front may move northward into the area Thursday afternoon. The probability of showers and thunderstorms is higher east of the Genesee Valley Thursday. The mid-level trough axis is expected to move across the forecast area Thursday night. Upper level moisture will move east, however forecast soundings show low level moisture remaining across the region. Drizzle and low clouds are likely Thursday night.

Surface high pressure is expected to move into the Ohio Valley Friday, while the mid-level trough continues to move east of the forecast area. Dry weather is expected Friday through Friday night.

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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure and a building ridge are expected across the region this weekend. Mean 500mb heights show a weak mid-level low over the southern Appalachians with a potential a low approaching the Carolinas. Mostly dry weather is expected across the forecast area this weekend, however can`t rule out diurnal showers Saturday afternoon with a potential plume of moisture to our southeast. Ridging remains across the region into next work week and mostly dry weather is expected.

Temperatures look to remain above normal into next week.

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.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Areas of fog will bring lower vsbys with IFR/LIFR at area terminals through this morning. This will especially be the case across the S.Tier (KJHW), Finger Lakes region, and east of Lake Ontario (KART/KGTB).

LIFR/IFR fog will improve slowly through the morning hours. After that...mainly VFR will be found at area TAF sites. Scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible later in the day as the weak sfc wave approaches from the Ohio Valley.

Tonight...the weak sfc wave will enter the region with showers and a few embedded rumbles of thunder. Area terminals will see deteriorating conditions with MVFR to IFR/LIFR conditions.

Outlook...

Thursday...MVFR/IFR with showers and a chance of a thunderstorm.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a few showers.

Saturday through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

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.MARINE... A weak low pressure approaching from the Ohio Valley will turn winds northeasterly and may increase up to 15 knots on western Lake Ontario, creating a moderate chop there, while elsewhere speeds should remain under 15 knots. As the low passes across the area tonight and Thursday, winds will initially freshen out of the southeast before veering southwest through the day as the low moves by just to our northwest. Winds shift westerly Thursday night and Friday as the low moves northeast of the region. Although there will be periods of light to moderate chop, conditions are not expected to reach Small Craft Advisory criteria through Friday. Sfc high pressure passes by to the north Friday night and then off into the Canadian maritimes Saturday. Light winds and wave action will prevail as we head into the weekend.

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.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None.

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SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...AR MARINE...AR/JM

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion

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