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Clarkson, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

366
FXUS61 KBUF 301720
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 120 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS... High pressure will guarantee fair dry weather through the entire week and into the coming weekend. A cooler airmass will move in tonight through Thursday with the potential for some frost at the higher elevations. Temperatures will then climb back above normal later in the week.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The center of a strong 1033 mb high over northern Ontario will drift into Quebec through the period. This will maintain fair dry weather. Incoming cooler air within a northeast flow will send low temperatures tonight into the lower to mid 40s, with mid to upper 30s across the hilltops and east of Lake Ontario. There should be enough gradient wind to preclude areas of frost from developing, though some patchy frost is possible in some of the higher elevations inland from the lake. Some lake induced clouds may also develop across northwest portions of the area late tonight and Wednesday morning with lake delta Ts around +12C.

Fair, but cooler weather expected Wednesday with any lake induced clouds fading away, with perhaps some cirrus encroaching the area from the west late in the day. High temperatures in the 60s with northeast breezes.

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.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure will be centered over the Saint Lawrence River between Lake Ontario and Quebec City Wednesday night. Clear and calm conditions will result in efficient radiational cooling, especially east and inland of Lake Ontario. Cool weather is expected with minimum temperatures ranging from the low 40s near the lakeshores to the 30s further inland. Valley locations in the western Southern Tier and the Finger Lakes region, are expected to fall to the low 30s, and the Black River Valley may see the upper 20s. This will lead to areas of frost in some locations, with the highest confidence east and inland of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. A Freeze Watch is in effect for Lewis county for the potential for sub- freezing temperatures in the 20s.

The surface high will move to the New England coast by Thursday night, then the Mid-Atlantic region by Friday night. A return flow will result in day to day warming through the end of the work week. Dry weather will continue through Friday night.

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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Upper level ridging will build across areas east of the Rockies this weekend. High pressure will remain the dominant surface feature across the eastern Great Lakes region and result in warm, dry weather. Ensemble systems show the ridge becoming suppressed early next week as a upper level trough moves into southern Canada. A cold front and source of moisture may move into the region by mid-week. This supports a low chance of showers Monday night through Tuesday.

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.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Widespread VFR with SKC-FEW250 will continue through this evening as strong surface high pressure extends across the region from the north. Northeast winds will occasionally gust to near 20 knots into this evening.

Fog development should be very limited tonight with a light gradient wind persisting over the region.

Incoming cooler air aloft could produce some SCT-BKN lake induced cloud cover from KROC to KBUF within the northeast flow. Confidence in how low this cloud will be is low, but there is some potential for MVFR ceilings to develop.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Sunday...Mainly VFR. Valley fog and local IFR possible each late night through the morning hours.

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.MARINE... A strong area of surface high pressure will build east into Quebec through tonight, then shift southeast across New England through the rest of the week. Northeast winds will increase on the lower Great Lakes due to a stronger pressure gradient between the Canadian high and two tropical systems off the southeast coast. The tight pressure gradient will continue and maintain the elevated northeast winds through Wednesday night. Small craft headlines are in place as outlined below.

Wind direction will start to become more easterly and relax as the surface high to the north begins to move southeast into Quebec later Wednesday night. The choppier wave action will gradually subside and become directed more offshore through the night, with light to modest breezes and minimal wave action then expected Thursday and especially on Friday.

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.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for NYZ003-004. Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for NYZ008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ040. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ041. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ043. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ044.

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SYNOPSIS...PP/TMA NEAR TERM...TMA SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...TMA MARINE...PP/TMA

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion

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