Cibola, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

094
FXUS65 KPSR 011100
AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
400 AM MST Wed Oct 1 2025
.UPDATE...Updated 12Z Aviation Discussion.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A dry and quiescent weather pattern will persist across the
  forecast area through the rest of this week.
- Temperatures will gradually warm from near normal to slightly
  above normal by the end of this week as a ridge of high
  pressure builds over the Desert Southwest.
- A dry weather system will pass through the Great Basin region
  and northern Arizona on Friday and Saturday which will result
  in breezy to locally windy conditions and cooler temperatures
  this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Latest mid-lvl wv imagery and 500 mb streamline analysis over the
western CONUS reveals a cutoff low pressure system approaching the
Pac NW while an area of high pressure is situated over N MX and West
TX. Between both of these features, a broad fetch of zonal flow
aloft is seen across Arizona. This westerly flow has resulted in
calm and dry weather across the state which will continue to be the
case today. Heading through this afternoon, we will see the upper
lvl ridge over N MX begin to strengthen. Positive hght anomalies
with 500 mb hghts reaching 587-589 dam will begin to expand over the
forecast area, allowing highs to climb slightly above average. Highs
this afternoon will range from the mid to upper 90s across the lower
deserts with mid 80s in the higher terrain areas. Under clear skies
and light winds, overnight lows will continue to bottom out near
seasonal norms in the mid 60s to low 70s across the region.
On Thursday, the subtropical high over N MX will continue to amplify
over the Desert Southwest as 500 mb hghts increase further to around
588-590 dam and 850 mb temperatures warm to around 23-25 C. This
will result in highs across the lower deserts reaching the upper 90s
to 100 degrees. We are approaching the date where we typically see
our last 100 degree day in Phoenix (October 5th), thus it is not
uncommon to still see 100 degree temperatures through the first week
of October.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ensemble and deterministic models remain in agreement that troughing
over the Pac NW will deepens over California and slide into the
Great Basin on Friday. As this occurs, 500 mb hghts will begin to
lower across the western half of the forecast area, but 500 mb hghts
will still hover around 588-590 dam over southcentral AZ. Negative
hght anomalies will arrive first in southeast CA Friday afternoon
where high temperatures will be slightly cooler in the low to mid
90s. However highs will still be above average in southcentral AZ in
the upper 90s to 100 degrees. Due to the tightening 700-500 mb hght
gradient, we will see a noticeable uptick in winds with breezy
conditions materializing across much of the region Friday afternoon.
The strongest winds (>30 mph) will likely reside across southeast
CA and the high country of northern AZ.
The trough axis will pass over N AZ on Saturday morning which will
drag a Pacific cold front through the forecast area. Post frontal
winds will continue to gust around 20-30 mph across southeast CA and
the Lower Colorado River valley early Saturday. 500 mb hghts will
lower back to seasonal ranges this weekend and into early next week,
which will foster temperatures cooling back to near normal Saturday
through early next week. Much drier air will also be ushered into
the region in the wake of this weather system which will allow
morning lows to feel much more fall-like in the low to mid 60s
across the lower deserts.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 1100Z.
South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Winds will continue to follow their typical diurnal tendencies
with speeds aob 10 kt. Extended periods of light and variable to
calm winds are also expected. Skies will continue to be clear.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
At KIPL, winds will tend to favor a westerly component through the
TAF period with a period of light and variable winds this
afternoon and early evening. At KBLH, current light and variable
winds will go southerly this afternoon and then westerly this
evening. Speeds at both terminals will be aob 8 kt. Skies will
continue to be clear.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will climb above normal through the end of this week as
a ridge of high pressure strengthens over the forecast area. Expect
dry conditions to persist with MinRHs bottoming out each afternoon
around 25-35%. Overnight moisture recovery will generally remain
in the fair category around 40-60%. Winds will follow light and
diurnal tendencies through Thursday, however a weather system
passing north of the region will result in an uptick in breezy
conditions across the region on Friday. Expect gusts to increase
to around 20-25 mph region-wide with locally higher gusts upwards
of 30 mph both Friday and Saturday. The passage of this weather
system will also result in the arrival of cooler temperatures and
much drier air through this weekend.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Salerno
LONG TERM...Salerno
AVIATION...Berislavich
FIRE WEATHER...Salerno

NWS PSR Office Area Forecast Discussion