Chloride, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

339
FXUS64 KEPZ 301704
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1104 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1040 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
- Dry conditions persist through the week ahead.
- Temperatures will climb to around 5 to 8 degrees above normal by
   Thursday as a drier air mass takes over. Southerly winds may also
   become a little breezy Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1040 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Upper level shortwave ridging will continue to quickly traverse west
to east across the region with zonal flow settling in thereafter.
Zonal flow aloft will dictate the sensible weather conditions on
Wednesday with continued above average temperatures and mostly
clear to partly cloudy skies.
High pressure aloft will begin building north across the Desert SW
starting Thursday and lasting through Friday. Desert lowland
temperatures will warm back above average, approaching 90 degrees.
Skies will be mostly clear with partly cloudy skies each afternoon,
along with light winds.
By this weekend, the next upper level trough will move across the
Great Basin and Central Rockies. Upper level flow will become
southwesterly, promoting low-end breezy winds on Saturday and
Sunday. Temperatures will remain above average with mostly dry
conditions expected.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR conditions expected through the period with SKC, becoming FEW
to SCT at 10-15 kft this afternoon. Winds will be light at 4-9
knots.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1040 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Fire weather concerns are low with low fire danger this week with
below normal ERCs and high soil moisture. Min RH 30-40%, dropping
into the 20s by the end of the work week with light west winds 7 to
15 mph. Vent rates will be Good today and Wednesday afternoon with
transport to the east.
The ridge is expected to break down on Saturday as a closed low
sweeps into the Great Basin, leading to an increase in southwest
winds that afternoon. Winds will fall short of hitting critical
thresholds and with minimum RH only dipping into the upper teens,
elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be unlikely. The
aforementioned low will be absorbed into a larger scale trough
cruising the Canada/CONUS border, keeping dry air in place on
Sunday, along with low-end breezy conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  65  90  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            57  84  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               59  85  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               59  85  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               43  64  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    57  84  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              53  79  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   57  87  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                58  84  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       66  87  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                57  87  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             63  90  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               59  81  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   62  89  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             61  86  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           62  85  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            59  84  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    57  87  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 59  87  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                57  84  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  48  75  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                48  75  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 47  72  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  46  77  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                54  84  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                56  84  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             47  79  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   53  82  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    54  85  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               52  81  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  55  80  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   57  86  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  56  84  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           57  85  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               57  81  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...38-Rogers

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion