Chilco, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

583
FXUS66 KOTX 232228
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
328 PM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warming back to above normal Tuesday through Thursday.
- Breezy, dry conditions Thursday with elevated fire weather
  concerns.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A drying and warming trend will remain in place through mid-week
with high temperatures in the 80s by Wednesday. Dry and breezy
conditions are expected Thursday, elevating fire weather concerns,
with temperatures dropping back into the 70s Friday and Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Wednesday: High pressure will dominate the weather
over the next day or so. This will bring dry conditions and
generally light winds. Lows tonight into early Wednesday will
mostly be above the frost point, except in spotty fashion in the
sheltered northern valleys where some mid to upper 30s are
forecast. This includes are along US-395 between about Colville
and Loon Lake, and also up toward Curlew. It may not be at the
critical temperatures long enough to produce any considerable
frost threat. Additionally there will remain some potential for
patchy fog in the sheltered northeast valleys again, but less
than Tuesday morning. Temperatures warm into the 80s over much
of the region Wednesday afternoon, save for the 60s and 70s in
the mountains.
Thursday: a strong dry cold front is forecast to push across
the region, bringing with it some increased clouds but no real
potential for precipitation. More notably dry and breezy/gusty
winds come with it. The front pushes by in the afternoon, on a
strong 110kt jet, which skims over the Cascades. Soundings show
a stable layer near the Cascades. The combination of the
westerly winds crossing the Cascades and that stable layer can
combine to bring mountain wave enhanced winds. Models also
indicate some modest drying with the front and models sometimes
have trouble resolving such drying. Thus RH values were reduced
compared to the National Blend of Models (NBM). All of this
converges to prompt the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch for the
Cascades through the Columbia Basin into the Spokane area and
Palouse south to the Blues. The warm, dry conditions preceding
it and several fires active support the potential for critical
fire weather conditions. The watch is for Thursday afternoon and
evening, except western Chelan county where strong winds will
linger and RH recoveries will remain poorer and thus the watch
is in effect through Friday morning. Winds of 10-20 mph with
gusts of 20-30 mph are forecast, except closer the Cascades and
Waterville Plateau were winds of 15-25 mph and gusts up to 40
mph will be possible. Temperatures cool slightly Thursday over
Wednesday, with highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s.
Friday to Tuesday: the pattern remains active this period with
additional waves approaching the areas this weekend and pushing
inland near the, start of the new work week. Weak ridging
develops Friday, while another trough deepens off the coast and
start to approach from the west by late Sunday. A few more
clouds will be seen and some shower chances come to the Cascade
crest Saturday and Sunday. Between Sunday night and Tuesday the
trough starts inland and start to expand precipitation chances
across the region. Monday and Tuesday PoPs are around 30-50%,
with the higher risk around the mountain zones. There is still
some model disagreement over the precise evolution of this
system so PoPs are not any higher at this point. Friday will
remain breezy in the wake of Thursday`s front, with winds of
10-20 mph and gusts to 25 mph, locally higher near the Cascades
and Waterville Plateau. RH values are expected to be above
critical thresholds. Temperatures will be largely in the 70s to
low 80s through Sunday, then the upper 60s and 70s heading into
Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the 40s to lower 50s, with
some upper 30s in the sheltered valleys and more outlying rural
areas.
Smoke and Haze: The Lower Sugarloaf and Labor Mountain fires in
the Cascades are expected to continue producing large amounts
of smoke that will impact air quality across the region through
at least the middle of the week. The WA Department of Ecology
has issued an Air Quality Alert until further notice and will
reassess conditions periodically. With the hot, dry and windy
conditions around the Cascades over the next few days and the
limited mixing before it, those impacts to air quality will
continue.  /Solveig
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: High pressure and drier air will bring generally VFR
conditions. Smoke from fires in the Cascades will continue to
impact visibility through Wednesday in Winthrop, Entiat, Chelan,
Wenatchee, and Leavenworth. Visibility may drop as low as 1
mile at times, especially in the later night and morning hours.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR through Wednesday except KEAT where
confidence is low.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        45  84  49  81  47  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  48  84  51  82  47  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        47  83  49  80  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       54  88  57  86  52  76 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       36  82  40  80  36  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      42  79  47  78  42  71 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        53  83  57  80  49  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     46  83  49  82  44  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      56  84  58  80  52  76 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           47  85  52  81  46  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for East Portion of North Cascades National
     Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East
     Washington North Cascades (Zone 698)-Eastern Columbia
     Basin  -Palouse  -Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of
     Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Lower Palouse  -
     Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan
     Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western
     Columbia Basin (Zone 707).
     Air Quality Alert until further notice for Central Chelan
     County-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Waterville
     Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western
     Okanogan County.
     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
     morning for East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696).
ID...None.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion