Charlotte, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

440
FXUS64 KOHX 141714
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1214 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1211 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
- Low chance for rain and storms throughout the day. Some gusty
  winds are possible, but overall impacts will be little to none.
- Afternoon highs remain a few degrees above normal through most
  of the week.
- Low to medium rain chances for the second half of next week with
  temperatures starting to regulate slightly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1054 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
The CAMs panned out this morning. Showers with a few rumbles of
thunder managed to make their way into Middle TN this morning. I
know, many will read that and call me a liar, but it really did
happen. For a few, anyway. While those radar returns have since
diminished, I don`t know if we`re completely out of the woods this
afternoon and evening with further rain chances. CAMs do show
further development as the atmosphere heats up under this northerly
flow and while most won`t see rain, a few more could. In fact,
looking at forecast soundings, if you do see a storm today, it could
have some gusty winds with it. However, I wouldn`t be changing any
plans you have. The likelihood for this occurring is very small. All
of this is possible due to the influences of two things: a couple of
ripples along the east side of an upper level ridge and an upper low
just off to our east. It`s putting us into a weak upper level
pattern and opening the door *just a little bit* for some to see
rain, especially those along and west of I-65. This will continue
into tomorrow, as well, as a low chance of afternoon showers and
storms persists. As I said yesterday, these aren`t going to be
gully washers that are going to break the developing drought
conditions, but I don`t think we can continue to say "rain-free"
over the next 24-36 hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1054 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
What I do think we can continue to say is that temperatures are
going to remain warm for the next several days. Afternoon highs look
to remain a few degrees above seasonal norms through at least
Thursday. Rain chances will remain small through mid-week, as well.
However, by late this week, as the upper low to our east decides to
pull away from the mid-state and upper ridging across the midwest
starts to break down, another upper trough will push into the center
of the country. When exactly this means a decent amount of rain for
us remains to be seen, but as I suggested yesterday, the influences
of this trough should push temperatures back towards seasonal values
by next weekend. This is being seen in the latest couple runs of the
NBM now, too. We`ll keep small PoP chances in the extended starting
Friday as this is when several ensembles are starting to show QPF in
our area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected generally west of
I-65 through this afternoon and evening. Latest model guidance
continues to show any activity west of BNA and MQY, and
probabilities at CKV remain too low to include in TAF. Amendments
may be needed depending on how showers develop through the day.
Otherwise, conditions are VFR with mid-level clouds and light
southwest to southeast winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  92  66  92 /  10  20   0   0
Clarksville    67  93  64  93 /  20  20   0   0
Crossville     58  83  59  80 /   0  10  10  10
Columbia       65  90  63  90 /  20  20   0   0
Cookeville     62  85  62  84 /   0  10  10   0
Jamestown      60  84  59  83 /   0  10   0  10
Lawrenceburg   64  88  61  88 /  20  20   0   0
Murfreesboro   64  90  63  90 /  10  10   0   0
Waverly        66  90  64  91 /  20  20   0   0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Clements

NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion