Challis, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

363
FXUS65 KPIH 061937
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
137 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread below freezing temperatures again tonight into
  Tuesday morning.
- Warming trend begins Tuesday and continues through the week.
  Precipitation and colder temperatures return for the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 134 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Afternoon satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across much of
eastern Idaho aside from some fair weather CU forming across the
higher terrain of the central mountains and eastern highlands.
Temperatures remain on the cooler side of normal this afternoon with
widespread upper 40s to mid 50s across the region. The cooler
temperatures are the only weather concern in the short-term as
another night of sub-freezing temperatures appear likely across our
agricultural zones. As such, another Freeze Warning is in place. NBM
low temps still appear to be too warm so they have been nudged down
slightly accordingly closer to the 25th percentile. Given the mostly
clear skies and light winds, temps should drop quickly tonight after
the sun goes down. Could certainly see a "killing freeze" (at or
below 28 degrees) in a few spots tonight, especially across the Arco
Desert and rural parts of our Snake Plain zones. Temps look to trend
upwards beginning tomorrow however with daytime highs expected to
return back into the 60s for most lower terrain locales. Tue night
into Wed AM looks like it`ll be a touch warmer but still may require
some frost/freeze headlines in spots.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 134 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Dry conditions will continue through Thursday. Two
trends have shown up in terms of the low to our west and any
interaction with the remnants of Priscilla. The first is increasing
confidence with moisture arriving starting Friday, which deeper
moisture arriving over the weekend. The 2nd trend deals with how
much moisture from Priscilla makes it to Idaho. That trend is
actually pushing a huge chunk of it to our southeast, but we still
catch some of it as the low moves inland.  Even with those changes
showing up, next week should be cooler and wet. Before that, highs
jump back into the 70s down low by Friday and back into the 40s and
50s by Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Localized fog has been slow to clear at PIH this morning, but
should in the next couple of hours. Otherwise, dry air continues
to filter in and we expect VFR weather is a result. We COULD see
localized fog again around PIH, and potentially and of our TAF
sites except SUN due to the extreme amount of moisture/humidity
that is still around from the weekend. However, the air SHOULD
be dry enough to keep any chance VERY LOW and out of the
forecast for now.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Will see dry conditions and a warming trend this week through
the week. Temperatures in low elevations back into the 70s by
Wednesday into Friday. Moisture and a cold frontal passage again
over the weekend. Showers will be possible Friday through next
Monday with a significant cool down Saturday through Monday with
temperatures well below normal once again Sunday into next week.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Tuesday for
IDZ051>055.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...Keyes
AVIATION...Keyes
FIRE WEATHER...GK

NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion