Centerville, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

648
FXUS63 KARX 250002
AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
702 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dense fog possible for much of the area again tonight.
- Warm and dry conditions to to return and stick around through
  the weekend and into next week. Some locations could surpass
  the 80 degree mark starting Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Another morning of dense fog across Southeastern Minnesota and
portions of Northwestern Wisconsin has finally burned off leaving a
deck of low stratus that has been slow to scatter out early
this afternoon. All signs point to another round of fog for much
of the area tomorrow morning. The continued dense cloud cover
has kept the low level moisture intact with limited daytime
mixing. If we could mix more efficiently through the day, the
fog potential would be minimized given the deep layer of dry air
aloft. Once the nocturnal inversion sets up, it is expected to
hold the low level moisture in place and allow for fog to
develop across the region tonight. Valley fog will also be
possible given the deep light wind layer up to around 800 mb.
The good news is that stratus shouldn`t be as widespread which
means fog will be able to burn off more quickly. This will allow
for plenty of sunshine and highs in the low to mid 70s
tomorrow.
A trough axis extending southwest from Northern Michigan into the
Southern Plains will continue to pivot counterclockwise into the
Lower Mississippi Valley later this week. At the same time, the
upper level jet will begin to sink southward creating two weak
cutoff lows in the upper levels: one near Southern California and
the other across the Deep South. Through the weekend, a strong ridge
is expected to build in between these lows into the Upper Midwest.
Even with an upper level shortwave trough passing to our north and
dragging some weak cold fronts through the area Friday and
Saturday, temperatures for the weekend will be mild in the 70s
to low 80s. These warm temperatures look to continue through
much of next week.
Cluster analysis shows the upper level ridging sticking around
through much of next week with the ridge axis only slightly
pivoting to the north and east through the week. Though we will
see gradual moisture return through the weekend, low level
capping and a lack of large scale forcing will keep conditions
dry. All members of the GFS and European ensemble show no rain
through much of next week with rain chances only returning for
some GFS ensemble members late next week Thursday/Friday. In any
case, it looks to be a dry and mild pattern to wrap up
September; a stark contrast to how it started.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Dense fog will cause aviation impacts for much of the local
forecast area, primarily from southeast Minnesota into western
and central Wisconsin. Expect visibilities to quickly reduce to
LIFR after initial MVFR visibility onset. Main difference from
Wednesday morning fog will be an earlier lift with more clear
upper level skies.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Barendse
AVIATION...JAR

NWS ARX Office Area Forecast Discussion