Cedar Springs, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

464
FXUS63 KGRR 181928
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
328 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and a Few Storms This Evening, Fog Returns Tonight
- Cooler and Unsettled Weather This Weekend Through Early Next
  Week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
- Showers and a Few Storms This Evening, Fog Returns Tonight
We remain under the general influence of high pressure, with ample
sunshine across much of Lower Michigan continuing today as
temperatures again surge into the mid 80s, which is about 10 degrees
warmer than normal for this time of year. However, some change is on
the horizon.
Showers and a few thunderstorms have formed and persisted throughout
much of the day over Northern Lake Michigan. This area is slowly
working its way south and east toward Ludington as of this writing.
Numerical guidance continues to struggle mightily with this area of
convection, although with some low-level convergence and several
hundred joules of CAPE it`s not a complete shock to see some slow-
moving showers/storms. Models continue to focus primarily on our
northeast corner counties (Clare, Osceola, Isabella) with convective
development over the next few hours, so the expectation is that the
ongoing weather along the lakeshore will continue to morph eastward
with time. Despite occasional flashes of lightning, these storms
are not severe, and the main impact will be some localized
beneficial rain totals around one-half inch or so.
Low-level winds become prevailing out of the northeast overnight as
surface high pressure shifts into position northeast of Lower
Michigan. This will bring moist flow directly off Lake Huron and
spread it across much of the area. As evening showers and storms
diminish after sunset, and temperatures begin to cool, we`re
expecting even more robust fog formation than we`ve seen the last
few nights. Fog will be thicker in east and northeast parts of the
area due to proximity to Lake Huron, but at least patchy fog is
likely across most of the area. This will burn off shortly after
sunset on Friday, though, giving way to sunshine and a final day
with temperatures in the 80s south of I-96. Clouds and cooler
temperatures will likely linger over the more northern areas
tomorrow.
- Cooler and Unsettled Weather This Weekend Through Early Next Week
The upper-level ridge axis passes through Lower Michigan Friday
morning, which begins a transition of our weather pattern into more
broad southwesterly flow. This will bring in additional moisture and
generally unsettled weather to the area starting this weekend and
continuing through at least the middle of next week. Temperatures
will steadily return to more seasonably cool conditions, with high
temperatures in the 70s. Rain/shower chances increase during this
period as the remnants of the broad upper low currently in the High
Plains pass near/north of Michigan with accompanying shortwave
troughs moving through Lower Michigan. While none of batches of
showers or storms over the next several days carry much of a risk of
heavy rain, the sheer number of rain chances should eventually
result in beneficial rain for most places, with WPC 7-Day QPF on the
order of 0.50 to 1.0 inches across virtually our entire area. While
this won`t reverse the ongoing drought conditions, it should provide
at least some relief.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Ongoing thunderstorms near MBL are forecast to stay north of the
terminals this afternoon, with otherwise FEW cumulus around 6kft
through this evening. West to northwest winds will become easterly
overnight increasing low-level moisture behind a cold front as
higher dewpoints come off of Lake Huron. This brings the potential
for fog and low ceilings tonight. However it is unclear how far
ceilings and visibilities will fall due to scattered cirrus
overhead. JXN, and possibly LAN will see the worst conditions
tonight being closest to Lake Huron, with IFR and lower conditions
on the table if conditions are favorable for radiational cooling.
AZO, BTL, and GRR would be more favored to see MVFR conditions.
Any fog and/or low stratus that do develop would diminish shortly
after sunrise.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Light northwesterly winds today become easterly Friday with waves
remaining below Small Craft Advisory levels through this time.
Increasing gradient winds of 15-20 knots from the east develop
Friday Night with Small Craft Advisory level gusts possible over the
waters. Winds subside to the 10-15 knot range for the weekend, with
winds from the southeast on Saturday and from the southwest Sunday.
A few rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday
through early next week as a disturbance crosses the Great Lakes
region.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion