Cartersville, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

288
FXUS61 KAKQ 231857
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
257 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides offshore through Wednesday bringing warmer
temperatures and more humid conditions. A slow moving cold
front moves into the area Thursday and Friday bringing
unsettled conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 255 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Mainly warm and dry this afternoon with clouds slowly increasing
  tonight.
High pressure prevails over the SE CONUS this afternoon ahead of
developing low pressure over eastern Oklahoma. Aloft, flow is
largely zonal over the Mid-Atlantic. Satellite imagery shows mostly
sunny conditions across the area with some passing cirrus.
Temperatures have warmed into the low and mid 80s across the region.
Latest CAMs show only limited coverage of showers and a few storms
across the far NW and N late this afternoon into the evening. SPC
has maintained a Marginal (level 1/5) severe risk across the NW
where 25-30 kts of shear could support a stronger storm threat, if
storms are able to form and move into the area. PoPs are 25% or
less, generally along and NW of a line from Farmville VA to
Cambridge MD with the vast majority of the area expected to stay dry
this evening. Clouds slowly increase tonight ahead of the Plains
surface low. Temps fall into the mid 60s tonight with light SW
winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- The upper height pattern amplifies for the second half of the
  week with a deep trough taking shape over the Mississippi
  River Valley, translating E and NE Thursday into Friday.
Above normal temperatures will continue on Wednesday ahead of the
upper trough. High pressure offshore will keep SW winds in place
with high temps well into the 80s, some low 90s are possible in SE
VA and NE NC Wednesday afternoon. Slightly higher chance of showers
and storms during the afternoon, mainly for areas N and W of
Richmond. Decent SW flow aloft could support a low end wind threat
during the afternoon and evening. Support aloft should allow the
shower threat to continue across the NW half of the area into the
overnight hours. Mild overnight with thicker cloud cover expected,
lows mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Flow aloft remains southwesterly on Thursday as the upper trough
sharpens. The main surface low lifts into the Great Lakes region by
Thursday afternoon, dragging the cold front slowly eastward.
Forecast soundings show decent overlap between instability and deep
layer shear across the region Thursday afternoon/evening. SPC has a
large Marginal Risk for severe across the Eastern Seaboard with the
potential for focused area of greater severe probabilities across
eastern VA and NC. Strong/severe straight line winds are the main
threat with any storms on Thursday. Temperatures will be warm once
again with low 80s NW and upper 80s to low 90s SE. Dew points also
increase and pool ahead of the front. WPC has included most of the
area in a Marginal ERO as PW values rise into the 1.75-2" range
ahead of the surface cold front. Showers continue overnight with
thunder chances decreasing after midnight. Muggy overnight with lows
in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Cooler and cloudy Friday with showers continuing, and maybe a few
storms across the SE half of the area as the front hangs up. WPC has
a Marginal ERO across the southern half of the area on Friday. Temps
top out in the upper 70s to low 80s over most of the area with mid
80s possible near the Albemarle Sound. Chance for showers continues
overnight into early Saturday with lows in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 255 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Unsettled pattern continues this weekend into early next week with
  near seasonal temperatures.
An upper low closes off over TN/AL early Saturday, bringing
additional chances for showers to the region. PoPs will be focused
across the southern third of the region on Saturday. Stayed close to
the blended guidance in the extended forecast period which keeps a
chance for thunder across the area Saturday, though suspect thunder
will be limited with most of the area just seeing showers. Highs
will be in the mid to upper 70s with overnight lows in the 60s.
Chance or slight chance PoPs continue thereafter with low confidence
given how poorly upper lows are handled by the models. Temperatures
Sunday into early next week generally in the mid to upper 70s with
lows in the upper 50s to 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 PM EDT Tuesday...
High pressure dominates the local weather pattern. Zonal flow
aloft is allowing some SCT/BKN cirrus to move into portions of
the area. Winds are generally light out of the SW this
afternoon. Latest guidance continues to show the potential for
some stronger convection west of the area along the Blue Ridge
this afternoon, possibly spreading east into this evening. At
this time, it appears most of the area will stay dry with a
slight chance for showers north and west of RIC and SBY. Winds
generally 5 kt or less tonight. Guidance shows the potential for
another round of fog or low stratus across the southern
terminals toward daybreak on Wednesday. Only confident enough to
include low end MVFR at ECG for now.
Outlook: There is a chc of aftn/evening showers tstms
Wednesday, mainly from RIC to SBY well in advance of a cold
front. This cold front slowly crosses the region Thursday and
Friday. Showers are likely with a few tstms possible during the
aftn hours. Occasional sub-VFR conditions are expected. A chc of
showers lingers into Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 255 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- E-SE swell of 3 to locally 5 feet continue over the Atlc Waters
  tonight. Seas gradually subside on Wednesday.
- Winds generally less than 10 kt into Wednesday.
Outside of the 4 to locally 5 ft swell over the Atlantic Waters from
distant Gabrielle into tonight, expect fairly tranquil marine
conditions across the waters through Thursday. High pressure over
and offshore of the local area will continue to move east through
Wed while a frontal system over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
slowly moves toward the area from the west. This will keep southerly
winds across the waters into Thursday. Expect winds of mostly less
than 10 kt tonight increasing to 10 to 15 kt by Thu AM. As the front
approaches on Thursday, the pressure gradient will continue to
tighten which will allow for winds of 15 to 20 kt across the waters
and potential small craft advisories for at least the bay Thu
afternoon. The front nearly stalls across or just south the waters
on Friday leading to weaker winds, but uncertainty in the wind
direction. By Saturday, the front will be south of the area with NE
winds developing as high pressure builds in from the north.
Seas continue 4 to locally 5 ft across the local Atlantic waters
from continued swell from Gabrielle. Expect seas to gradually
diminish to 3 ft on Wednesday, then building again to around 4 ft on
Thursday due to the increased southerly winds. Seas back off to
generally 2-3 ft early in the weekend before building to 4-5 ft
Sunday night.
High risk of rip currents continue into this evening. Although the
swell will gradually subside on Wednesday, it will still be at 3 to
4 feet which combined with the long period of 10 to 12 sec, will
lead to another day of high rip current risk for all of the beaches
on Wednesday.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...MRD

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion