Cabazon, California Weather Forecast Discussion

082
FXUS66 KSGX 252106
AFDSGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
206 PM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
The closed upper level low that brought instability into Northern
California is slowly drifting back to Southern California,
increasing winds, dropping temperatures, deepening the marine
layer and yielding the potential for showers and thunderstorms
Friday through Sunday. Early fall-like temperatures will stick
around thereafter with calmer weather.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
This afternoon, clouds are limited to a few miles off the coast
and a few clouds over the mountains. The approaching low is
strengthening the onshore flow this afternoon. Through tonight,
winds will gust to 35-45 mph for desert facing mountains slopes
and up to 55 mph in the Banning Pass.
The marine layer tonight will be deep enough for low clouds to
cover the entire coastal basin with patchy drizzle overnight,
accumulating to a few hundredths of an inch in spots.
High resolution models introduce the slight chance for a few
thunderstorms over the mountains Friday afternoon. As the low
slowly shifts eastward, there will be greater easterly flow aloft
and confidence increases Saturday morning for scattered
thunderstorms drifting westward into the desert slopes and
mountains. With daytime convection, moderate confidence for
scattered thunderstorms across the mountains and deserts with a
30-40% chance a few storms drift into the Inland Empire and a
20-30% chance for a storm or two to reach into the inland valleys
of San Diego County. While the upper level vorticity maximum will
provide adequate support for scattered thunderstorms, CAPE values
will likely remain below 1000 J/kg, supporting mainly sub-severe
storms. PWAT values will reach up to 1.50 inches Saturday
afternoon, yielding a moderate chance for localized flooding
associated with storm rates locally over 1 inch/hr. Storm activity
should wrap up quickly after sunset Saturday with only a slight
chance for an isolated storm Sunday over the mountains.
Next week, consistent upper-level westerly flow will keep
temperatures near to slightly below average with only slight
variations in temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
252040Z....Coasts/Valleys...Low clouds will move ashore after 00Z,
filling much of the coastal basin overnight with high confidence.
Higher bases near 1000-2000 feet MSL with areas of higher terrain
away from the coast having vis reduced 0-5SM. Patchy -DZ expected 08-
17Z Friday morning, especially along the coast, temporarily reducing
cigs/vis. Confidence is moderate on clearing times but inland
valleys should clear between 17-19Z, closer to 19-21Z near the
coast, though some areas near the beaches may remain BKN into Friday
afternoon. Slight chance of ISO TSRA reaching the valleys west of
the mountains Friday afternoon.
Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear skies today and tonight. Increasing
west winds 25-40 kts across mtn passes and desert slopes until 12Z
Friday. 20% chance of ISO TSRA with storm tops to 30K ft. across the
mountain areas and deserts north of Big Bear on Friday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday.
&&
.BEACHES...
Long period south swell from Hurricane Narda will arrive this
weekend. Swell of 5-6 feet with a period of 14-15 seconds will
produce high surf and strong rip currents, especially for south
facing beaches, Sunday through Tuesday. Surf heights will be highest
along south-facing beaches with heights 5 to 7 feet; sets 8 to 10
feet possible in Orange County. Coastal flooding and erosion are
possible, especially during high tides. Stay tuned for details
forthcoming.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Westerink
AVIATION/MARINE...APR

NWS SGX Office Area Forecast Discussion