Burke, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

938
FXUS61 KLWX 231854
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
254 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches and stalls nearby before pushing through the
forecast area Thursday night through Friday. Surface high pressure
builds in behind the front and remains overhead through early next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KLWX radar loop as of 3PM shows rain showers moving across the
forecast area. Satellite throughout the day has shown clouds
overspreading the area, likely inhibiting daytime heating and
instability. Recent CAMS continue to show convection initiating
later this afternoon, but continued cloud cover leads to
uncertainty on if convection is able to initiate. Despite
prolonged cloud cover, there is 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE across
the forecast area. Combined with 25kt bulk shear and mid level
lapse rates nearing 6C/km, thunderstorms remain possible. SPC
has a Marginal Risk for severe weather for areas along and east
of I-81 this afternoon with wind remaining the primary concern.
High pressure shifts offshore tonight as a cold front approaches
the forecast area from the northwest. Any precipitation activity
is expected to dwindle overnight with overnight lows dropping
into the upper 50s to 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level troughing extending from the Great Lakes down towards
the Mississippi River Valley will slowly approach the forecast area
Wednesday and Thursday. At the surface, a cold front will remain
stalled to the northwest while slowly inching towards the forecast
area. As the front remains nearby, multiple waves of low pressure
will travel along the front Wednesday and Thursday. This will yield
daily shower and thunderstorm chances across the region. On
Wednesday, the Storm Prediction Center has portions of the area
along and west of the Blue Ridge in a marginal risk for severe
weather with wind as the primary threat. PWATS of around 1.5 inches
will make any strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
heavy rainfall. Given recent dry conditions and ongoing drought,
rainfall looks to be beneficial at this time. High temperatures will
be in the 70s to low 80s with highest elevations staying in the 60s.
Shower and thunderstorm chances dwindle overnight with low
temperatures in the 60s across the area.
Shower and thunderstorm chances continue on Thursday as the
aforementioned front remains nearby and approaches the forecast
area. With conditions similar to Wednesday, scattered to numerous
thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are possible across much of the forecast area. The Storm Prediction
Center as the area east of the Alleghenies in a marginal risk for
severe weather. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low
80s across the area with highest elevations in the 60s.
Overnight low temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
To finish out the work week, a slow moving cold front will finally
work its way through the region on Friday. At this point, any severe
thunderstorm chances would be minimal with the frontal passage
during the morning hours. However, conditions may not completely
clear out owing to a couple of factors. First, the upper trough lags
behind a bit so modest lift in this air mass should keep clouds and
showers around at times. Additionally, an evolving closed low over
the southeastern U.S. will also induce further shower activity off
to the south. The northward extent of such showers is unknown
given uncertainty in the track/position of the developing upper
low center.
Through the weekend and into early next week, this forming rex block
is the key highlight in the synoptic pattern ahead. Of interest,
there are random solutions that show some sort of tropical moisture
lifting from the tropical Caribbean along the western Atlantic.
Whether this actually materializes into an area of low pressure is
uncertain, but enhanced moisture looks to lift toward the mid-
latitudes by the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe. Among the ensemble
systems, the European (EPS) solution is the boldest in maintaining a
closed low and ushering precipitation back into the area. Other
ensembles are more washed out owing to shearing out the closed low
more readily. Thus, it remains to be seen if shower threats emerge
in this regime. For now, the forecast has remained more conservative
capping shower chances at 10 to 20 percent.
Fairly seasonable temperatures are expected through the period. On
Friday through Sunday, expect highs in the upper 70s to low 80s,
with the mountains in the 60s to low 70s. A secondary cold front
tracking through on Sunday should yield a gradual cool down into the
next work week. This also lowers dew points as winds turn more
northerly. As expected, ensemble spread increases next week as noted
by the increasing size of the box-and-whisker plots. This is likely
due to the unknowns around the meandering upper low over the
Tennessee Valley.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected across the terminals
through tonight.High level clouds are currently traversing the
forecast area as of 2PM with rain showers/low level clouds
moving east towards the Blue Ridge. Lingering cloud cover will
play a big part on if convection initiates this afternoon. 12Z
CAMS agree on showers and thunderstorms impacting the terminals
this afternoon into this evening should convection initiate.
Currently have a TEMPO at all airports except for CHO, where a
PROB30 conveys lower confidence. If convection initiates and
tracks across the terminals, gusty winds and heavy rainfall
resulting in reduced visibilities will be the primary threats.
Precipitation chances dwindle overnight with prevailing VFR
conditions expected through Thursday. Additional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Thursday.
Winds generally remain light, blowing out of the south around 5
to 10 knots.
With a cold front slowly pushing through the area, some restrictions
are possible into Friday given enhanced cloud cover and residual
showers. This could linger a bit longer over the eastern terminals
as enhanced moisture persists near the frontal zone. Winds turn
mainly northwesterly before shifting to southerly for the second
half of Saturday. Expect VFR conditions for the weekend while a
secondary cold front tracks through on Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Special Marine Warnings are possible this afternoon and evening
as strong thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds travel
over the waters. The greatest chances for SMWs will be in the
northern portions of the waters although a gusty rain shower
cannot be ruled out further south.
Southerly channeling tonight will result in winds nearing Small
Craft Advisory criteria with winds expected to stay below
criteria. Winds remain out of the south on Wednesday and are
expected to remain light. A nearby frontal system could result
in showers and thunderstorms over the waters in the afternoon,
although any warnings or advisories seem unlikely at this time.
On Thursday, shower and thunderstorm coverage increases over the
waters with SMWs likely Thursday afternoon. Strong to severe
thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds move across the
waters as a cold front approaches and moves through the area
overnight. With the frontal passage, winds increase to just
below SCA criteria. Advisories may be required Thursday
afternoon.
Overall wind fields should stay below advisory thresholds through
Saturday. A cold front slowly tracks across the waters Friday
morning with gradients rather weak in the wake. Consequently, this
generally holds gusts around 10 knots or less.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Anomalies are forecast to remain slightly elevated through Thursday,
so additional near minor flooding is possible at sensitive
locations such as Annapolis. This is most likely with the
higher daily tide cycle in the afternoon and evening, with the
strongest onshore flow and highest anomalies possible on
Thursday into Friday.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...AVS
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...AVS/BRO
MARINE...AVS/BRO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion