Brockport, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

772
FXUS61 KBUF 171856
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
256 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry weather through Thursday. A weak
cold front will drop south across the area Thursday night bringing
the chance for a few widely scattered showers, however more notable
will be the cooler air mass that pushes into the area behind the
cold front as another large area of Canadian high pressure builds
southeast across the region with dry weather expected through the
bulk of the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure ridged over the area will maintain dry weather through
the bulk of Thursday.
Otherwise, low pressure that has been plaguing the Mid Atlantic and
that`s responsible for bringing the increased amounts of upper level
clouds across our area, will weaken becoming an open wave and will
shift east overnight taking the extra cloud cover with it. However,
clearing skies and light winds will bring about the continued
likelihood for valley fog to form later tonight, especially across
the Southern Tier.
Dry weather continues through Thursday for the bulk of the region,
however a moisture-starved cold front will approach from the north
later in the day, bringing the chance for a few widely scattered
light showers to the North Country toward the tail end of the day.
There will also be a more noticeable breeze as the pressure gradient
tightens across the area in advance of the approaching cold front.
Temperatures will remain summer-like.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thursday night a cold front will continue to drop southeastward
across our region. Shallow moisture in the 925 to 850 hPa layer,
along with lift along the front and an upslope component may be
enough to squeeze out sprinkles or a light shower...and will
continue with the slight chance PoPs south of Lake Ontario for
Thursday night.
Otherwise, winds will shift to northerly behind the front with cold
air advection aloft.
Stubborn clouds Friday morning south of Lake Ontario on an upslope
flow will erode through the afternoon with drier air advecting in.
This dry airmass Friday night will bring excellent radiational
cooling conditions, with light winds allow for air temperatures to
drop down into the mid 30s east of Lake Ontario...with patches of
frost likely.
Surface high pressure will maintain dry conditions for the upcoming
weekend, with Sunday`s air temperature a good 10 degrees warmer and
dewpoints 15 to 20 degrees warmer.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will settle out to the Atlantic sea this
period, though ridging aloft will remain. Weakening shortwave
troughs riding along the ridge, coupled with an increase in lower
atmospheric moisture may yield a few spot showers...especially
across WNY which will lie farther from the mid level ridge axis over
the Northeast.
Temperatures will remain above normal this period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure over the region will maintain VFR across all terminals
rest of today. Patchy upper level cirrus will start to retreat from
west to east late in the day into this evening as low pressure over
the Mid Atlantic weakens and starts to pull east.
Mainly VFR tonight with the exception of localized valley fog
appearing possible again across the Southern Tier (possibly kJHW)
later tonight through mid morning Thursday as we lose any cloud
cover aloft and winds remain light through the overnight allowing
for good radiational cooling conditions. There may also be some
fog/low stratus developing over western Lake Ontario and eastern
Lake Erie later tonight, that if does form could advect into or near
KIAG.
Widespread VFR conditions Thursday, although could see some wind
gusts up to 15 knots from midday on as pressure gradient tightens
ahead of a cold front approaching from the north.
Outlook...
Thursday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR. Overnight valley fog
across the western Southern Tier will be possible.
Monday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Mainly light winds and low wave action expected through midday
Thursday with high pressure in control.
Pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front
Thursday afternoon, bringing elevated southwest to west flow, but
conditions still remaining below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Cold
front crosses the lower Great Lakes Thursday night with a freshening
northerly flow in its` wake bringing near SCA conditions to portions
of Lake Ontario Thursday night into Friday.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion