980 FXUS64 KMRX 110533 AFDMRXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 133 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 117 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
- Fall-like, cool temperatures and dry weather expected through this weekend into next week. A slight warming trend next week.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 117 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
In the upper levels, a trough is lingering over the Southeast as a cut-off low moves into the Northeast. A ridge extends from Texas to the Midwest. At the surface, high pressure over the Northeast is moving out quickly as a low starts to develop off the Southeast Coast. This low will be slow moving making its way off the Mid- Atlantic Coast by Sunday and Monday. For the most part, our region will remain dry on the backside of the East Coast system with northwesterly flow in the upper levels. There is a low chance for light rain in Northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia on Sunday afternoon as the system is closest but the chances are low around 20 percent. The ridge will finally build into the Tennessee Valley by Monday and Tuesday. Ridging and high pressure will continue through mid and likely late next week.
Other than the low possibility of showers Sunday afternoon, dry weather is expected this weekend through next week. A gradual warming trend is expected early next week as the ridge builds into the region but temps will still be pleasant with highs mainly in the upper 70s.
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.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 117 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Some patchy fog near TRI around daybreak will be possible. Some high clouds are moving into TRI from the southeast but will likely not prevent fog development. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Northeasterly winds will be light.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 77 51 78 52 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 48 76 51 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 74 49 76 51 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 47 73 51 / 0 10 10 20
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.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. &&
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DISCUSSION...McD AVIATION...McD
NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion