Branch, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

245
FXUS64 KTSA 261712
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1212 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
- Patchy fog still possible, but less likely tonight across far eastern
  OK and northwest AR.
- Dry weather with temperatures warming back above average by this
  weekend and into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
About as quiet as it gets through tonight. Surface and upper-level
ridging will maintain control and keep things very quiet through
tonight. With abundant sunshine, temperatures will reach the low-mid
80s by peak heating time today. Winds will turn more southerly,
remaining light, by this evening as the surface ridge axis pushes
into western/central AR. Kept temperatures on the lower side of
guidance with surface high pressure still hanging around in the area
tonight. Overnight lows will be similar to last night, perhaps a
degree or two warmer in spots, generally mid-upper 50s, lower-50s in
far northwest AR. Patchy and shallow fog may develop again in and
around streams, river banks, and valleys overnight tonight, but
should stay fairly isolated.
Mejia
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
An upper-level ridge will strengthen over the Plains on Saturday
into Sunday. Surface high pressure will continue to shift
northeastward across MO/IL, maintaining light southeast/east-
southeast winds through the weekend. Temperatures on Saturday will
be the warmest day of the weekend, possibly warmest through the long-
term period, ranging from the mid-upper 80s for most locations. A
few spots west of Highway 75 may even touch 90 degrees a couple of
hours in the afternoon. As surface and upper-level ridging slides
northeast for the second half of the weekend and into early next
week, temperatures may cool off a couple of degrees, but will still
be a few degrees above seasonal average. Rain chances through early
next week are unlikely.
Heading into midweek and into late next week, some uncertainty
begins to come into play for the area and will be dependent on what
happens with position/orientation/strength of the upper-level ridge
as well as what is now currently tropical disturbance AL94 in the
Caribbean. Most deterministic and ensemble data suggest above
average temperatures and dry weather persists, but a few ensemble
members, especially from the GEFS and deterministic GFS show a small
chance of increased precipitation chances pushing westward into
western AR and eastern OK a day or two after AL94 makes landfall
along the Southeast CONUS coast. Models and ensembles also suggest
small chances of precipitation pushing into Oklahoma Wednesday into
Thursday as a shortwave trough moves off the Rockies. Assuming these
rain chances do verify, albeit very low chances at this time, it
appears QPF will be light regardless. Will maintain the NBM solution
at this time, which maintains warm and mostly dry conditions pursing
into next weekend.
Mejia
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with no
aviation concerns for most areas. The only issue could be brief
morning fog Saturday morning, particularly near KFYV. Otherwise
winds will be light with partly to mostly clear skies.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  87  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   60  86  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   58  87  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   54  86  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   50  83  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   54  81  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   57  86  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   56  84  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
F10   57  87  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   58  85  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...06

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion