Box Elder, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

036
FXUS63 KUNR 241941
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
141 PM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry with above normal temperatures through the period
- Elevated fire weather conditions at times
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 121 PM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Upper air models show ridge building into the northern plains
today as upper low moves over the Great Lakes region. Surface
analysis shows high over Wyoming this afternoon. Satellite shows
hardly a cloud to be found over the FA. Temperatures currently
sit in the 70s to low 80s with light southeast to southwest
surface winds.
Upper ridge continues over the northern plains for Thursday before
flattening out on Friday as upper trough skirts across southern
Canada. Associated dry weak cold front passing through later
Friday will allow for breezy northwest winds and a slight drop in
temperatures for later Friday into Saturday, though still at or
above normal. Upper ridge once again builds back over the central
and northern plains the remainder of the weekend into next week.
Models show very little available moisture through the period, so
expect a dry 7 days. Long range models show upper trough digging
into the western CONUS later next week, so we may see a pattern
shift towards cooler temperatures and precipitation chances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday)
Issued At 1117 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds
are expected to remain out of the south through today, becoming
variable by early tomorrow morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 121 PM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Sustained dry weather with above normal temperatures will bring
elevated fire weather conditions to parts of the area over the
next 7 days. Minimum relative humidities will drop into the teens
over parts of northeastern WY, the Black Hills, and southwestern
SD Thursday and Friday. Minimum relative humidities in the 20s
will be common elsewhere through the forecast period. A few breezy
spots will occur, particularly Friday with a dry cool front
passage.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...Bunker
FIRE WEATHER...Dye

NWS UNR Office Area Forecast Discussion