Birmingham, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

004
FXUS63 KDVN 301923
AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
223 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The message remains the same, above normal temperatures look to
  continue into the weekend along with dry weather.
- Model trends continue a general window for rain chances may
  late Sunday into Monday with a slow frontal passage but
  confidence remains low on moisture availability and that if we
  will see that much rain at all.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Tonight...Will keep the climate section for reference, but looks
like most climate sites to fall short of records this afternoon.
Upper level blocking pattern continues with bookend cyclones off the
Atlantic coast helping the cause enhancing the omega ridge overhead.
Will go with lows in the mid to upper 50s banking on an east-
southeasterly sfc wind maintaining around 5 KTs and some of the mid
and high clouds upstream acrs the MO RVR Valley moving acrs the CWA
tonight. Otherwise there will be more lower 50s in ongoing large
diurnal range/dry sfc layer regime.
Wednesday...Some lingering cloud cover and fcst soundings limiting
mixing depth into base of H85-H8 MB inversion should make for not
quite as of a warm day, but may side with the 90th percentile anyway
as a hedge to the dryness. Same for Wed night may lean toward the
cooler of guidance despite a southeasterly sfc wind.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Thursday and Friday...Medium range ensembles continue to maintain
the broad omega block acrs much of the mid and eastern CONUS through
week`s end, with return flow mixing and fcst thickness advection
support high temps by Friday in the upper 80s or even near 90 in
some spots.
Saturday through Monday...Longer range upper jet trends continue to
show digging jet flow and resulting longer wave/upper troff
development acrs the northern into central Rockies, with a large sfc
frontal system underlying this process. Then it becomes the battle
of the upstream trough and jet as it tries to migrate eastward into
the stubborn omega ridge. Expect a continued slowed LLVL frontal
push a bit in additional runs making for ongoing FROPA uncertainty
in timing for the local area into early next week. How much moisture
return into this frontal feature to scoop up into precip generation
also vary much at question, and it may be just along or post-frontal
light rain if we can`t get much feed off the western Gulf. Back to
the pre-frontal days, warm sector-like return flow boost and mixing
could make for highs Sat and Sunday not all that far off of record
highs like the previous shift mentioned, as long as we stay
generally cloud free those days. More of a southerly sfc wind flow
at night may limit some the big diurnal swings/night thermal
plummets in the ongoing dry boundary layer and sfc environment that
we have been dealing with. The gustier winds, very warm temps, low
RH`s, will likely lead to at least an elevated crop field fire
danger Saturday and possibly Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
High pressure in a blocked weather pattern will continue to
provide for another VFR TAF cycle through midday Wednesday.
Rather light east to southeasterly sfc winds for much of the
period, with just an increase in some mid and high cloudiness
for tonight.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Record highs for Today September 30th...
Burlington, IA.........91 in 2023 and previous years
Cedar Rapids, IA.......94 in 2023
Dubuque, IA............89 in 1897
Moline, IL.............92 in 1952
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...12
CLIMATE...08

NWS DVN Office Area Forecast Discussion