Bird City, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

398
FXUS63 KGLD 032024
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
224 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist
  through Saturday, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
- Strong southerly winds potentially gusting to 55 mph remain
  forecast Saturday across most of the area. Some blowing dust
  is also possible with visibility reductions near source
  regions.
- A few severe storms capable of wind gusts up to 65 mph and
  blowing dust are also possible Saturday evening currently
  favoring western portions of the area.
- Breezy to strong southerly winds, above normal temperatures
  and low relative humidity (15-25%) will also create elevated
  to locally critical fire weather conditions on Friday and
  Saturday. Outdoor burning is not advised.
- Cooler, with normal to below normal temperatures Sunday
 through the middle portion of next week
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
The area is starting to feel the effects of the troughing across the
western CONUS as 850mb and 700mb jets are starting to increase. As
this occurs winds will gradually start increasing across the area
this afternoon with gusts of 20-35 mph currently forecast. The
windiest conditions are currently forecast across eastern
portions of the forecast area due to the jet being strongest.
The southerly winds are also helping warm the temperatures as
well with many locales in the mid to upper 80s across the
forecast area. Western portions are forecast to see dewpoints
fall as well as downsloping winds become more prevalent
resulting in the potential for some locally critical fire
weather conditions. Winds across this area are however forecast
to be around 20-25 mph helping limit overall fire weather
concerns. Overnight the low level jets associated with the
trough are forecast to continue to increase. Some minor pressure
falls across the area should continue to keep winds mixed with
wind gusts around 30-35 mph continuing throughout the night.
The continued mixing and winds continuing are forecast to keep
overnight lows from falling to much as well as much of the area
is currently not forecast to fall below 55-60 degrees.
Saturday, continues to have the makings of a potential multi hazard
day as the trough continues to get closer to the area. Confidence is
high to very high in wind gusts of 35-45 mph occurring across most
if not all of the forecast area as the 850mb and 700mb jets remain
across the area. GFS continues to be the most aggressive with the
strength of the winds with a solid 42-48 knot winds throughout
the mixing layer. Other guidance is in the 35-40 knot range
throughout the mixing layer. GFS typically does do the best in
windier scenarios so have tailored the forecast towards that so
the potential is there for 50-55 mph winds and would not be
surprised if some isolated 60 mph wind gusts were to occur.
With the wind, blowing dust will be a concern as well as we have had
multiple warm and breezy days and little rainfall over the past
week. NASASPORT continues to show drying of the 0-10cm soil moisture
falling into the mid teens to low 20s across most of the area. At
this time not anticipating widespread blowing dust concerns as
the winds may not be strong enough to get numerous plumes of
blowing dust going and any that do get going should rise into
the atmosphere given high mixing heights and no capping level
present via the 2- 2.5cm lapse rates. Still can`t rule out some
localized brownout conditions near source regions but current
thinking is that more of a haze will be present. This haze also
may affect air quality as well.
Elevated fire weather will also be a concern as well given the
winds. I did bring down dew points to some of the lower guidance as
forecast soundings show drier air just above the surface that should
be easily mixed down. With this and being on the warmer side of
guidance am still struggling to get humidity values lower than the
upper teens to low 20s. I did take into consideration the forecasted
winds to perhaps equal out not quite being to the 15% threshold for
Red Flag Warnings but fuel partners stated that with fuels still
being so marginal fires still may not rapidly spread so opted
to hold off on any fire products.
Next part of the day will be a cold front moving towards the area
which is forecast to lead to some showers and storm potential. The
cold front will also lead to a wind shift which would make the
response to any fire more difficult. Showers and storms with the
cold front are forecast to move into eastern Colorado around 6-7pm
MT. Continue to think that damaging winds up to 65 mph will be the
main threat with any storm given the wind field in place and steep
lapse rates. There is potential however which does have a history of
happening that convective winds sometimes do not materialize
given the strong synoptic winds and winds actually weakening
with the storms. Some hail threat may materialize as well if we
can get a long lived, strong updraft as wind shear will be very
strong which would keep frozen droplets aloft longer
especially given a shallow freezing level around 12,000 feet.
However do have concerns that the strength of the wind shear
will shear apart updrafts before large hail can become a concern
given meager MUCAPE of around 500 j/kg. The other aspect of the
storms is that if any outflow can emanate then blowing dust may
again be a concern potentially in the form of haboob. Any
severe threat should be ended no later than 12am MT. Winds will
gradually diminish through the night as we lose influence of the
cold front.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Cold air advection is forecast to continue through the day Sunday in
wake of the cold front.  Breezy winds are forecast to continue as
well but not to the extent of Sunday as the 850 and 700mb jets are
forecast to weaken as we lose synoptic influence; wind gusts of
25- 30 mph are still possible however. High temperatures are
currently forecast in the low 70s to low 80s across the area
but may be a little bit cooler if the front moves through
quicker. A quick moving shortwave during the evening and
overnight hours across northern portions of the area may lead to
some showers and storms but severe weather is not anticipated
with that activity. A severe threat across eastern portions of
the area may also develop but will be highly dependent of the
positioning of the cold front.
Through the remainder of the week mainly zonal flow is forecast to
ensue continuing more normal temperatures for October standards. A
few surface highs are also forecast to nudge into the area Tuesday
and Wednesday mornings which may yield some strong radiational
cooling potential which may lead to some frost concerns. Towards the
latter portion of the week starting to see some signals for a
similar pattern to what is ongoing right now which may lead to
another risk for warmer temperatures and windy conditions towards
the latter part of the week and into the weekend but still remains a
bit to far out to nail down details at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1054 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Wind will be the main story for the 24-36 hours or so. Southerly
winds are forecast to gradually increase this afternoon gusting
to around 25-30 knots with the strongest more likely for MCK
where a stronger jet streak is located. A low level jet will
continue to strengthen this evening and overnight leading to
continued breezy to gusty winds and low level wind shear as the
jet aloft strengthens to 50-60 knots. As the nocturnal
inversion breaks around 14-15Z stronger wind gusts around 40-45
knots are forecast to begin mixing to the surface for each
terminal. Some dust may be possible for each terminal leading to
either visibility reductions or a ceiling due to haze towards
the latter portion of this TAF period and into the next which
may impact flight categories, confidence is not high enough at
this time to include in the TAF however.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are
forecast to continue through the remainder of the afternoon with
the main concern for locally critical conditions across eastern
Colorado. The wind is forecast to continue through the night
and strengthen at the surface Saturday morning as the nocturnal
inversion breaks around 14-15Z. High confidence in wind gusts
of 35-45 mph and sustained winds of 25-35 mph; would also not be
surprised if wind gusts around 55 mph can occur if enough
mixing can be achieved. For the forecast have went a little
lower on dew points as forecast soundings show drier air just
above the surface that should have no problem mixing down. The
biggest issue is that fuels are still marginal and there is some
green in vegetation as well that may help keep dew points a tad
bit further increased. Given the high likelihood of strong
winds did still contemplate fire weather products but per fuel
partner feedback with myself being on the lower end of dew
points and still struggling to get forecasted RH to fall out of
the upper teens to low 20s with the marginal nature of the fuels
that it would still be difficult to justify fire weather
products at this time. Now this may change if additional
guidance continues to come in lower with dew points.
Showers ands storms are forecast to develop along a cold front
which may support some dry lightning potential but confidence
in lighting coverage is a bit lower due to meager amounts of
elevated CAPE in place. These storms may also be capable of
wind gusts up to 65 mph and blowing dust as well which if a fire
were to start would make responding to a fire very difficult.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg
FIRE WEATHER...Trigg

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion