Berino, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

308
FXUS64 KEPZ 261055
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
455 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 454 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected each afternoon
   through Sunday.
- Localized heavy rainfall and a few strong to severe
   thunderstorms will be possible.
- Thunderstorm chances will diminish on Monday, and mainly be
   focused east of the Rio Grande, before a general drying and
   warming trend arrives for Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1050 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
This evening`s water vapor imagery shows an omega block across the
CONUS with one low over Central CA a ridge running through NM into
the Central Plains with another trough along the Ohio River
Valley. The UL low over CA will give us rain and storm chances
through Monday with the blocking pattern holding it mostly in
place before it makes a slow eastward motion. For now, the
placement of the low has its jet`s exit region extending into
Western AZ with a warm conveyor belt extending eastward toward the
Rio Grande Valley. Plenty of UL support has been responsible for
scattered to widespread showers and activities earlier this
evening, but with weaker instability east of the Rio Grande as
well as waning UL dynamics, shower and thunderstorm activity will
continue to decrease over the next few hours although a few
showers may continue toward the AZ-NM state line.
The UL low is expected to dig southward toward the CA-Mexico
border by tomorrow afternoon before making a slow eastward trek.
Thunderstorms will once again develop in the afternoon across
Western NM before spreading east throughout the evening. Better
instability and dynamics should allow a farther eastward
progression than we saw this evening. There is also about 30 knots
of shear forecast for western areas, which may foster a severe
storm or two. SPC has a Marginal risk out for western zones.
The UL low will move little by Saturday evening, but it will
expand allowing better diffluence to overspread more of the CWA.
Thus, we will have another round of scattered to widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Shear also looks to increase farther
east, so the marginal severe risk may also spread more toward the
Rio Grande.
We stay beneath diffluent flow through Sunday as the low begins to
open up as a trough over AZ. Drier air will begin to push in from
the west reaching to roughly the Continental Divide or Rio Grande.
Rain and storm chances will effectively end west of this line with
enough shear for isolated severe storms. It`s not until Monday
evening, we lose the dynamics that rain and storm chances will
end.
After this low leaves us, ridging will build in its place, and by
Monday evening most locations should be dry. Temperatures will
warm the remainder of the weak back to near 90 for the lowlands.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 454 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
SCT100 SCT-BKN250...isolated BKN070 -SHRA west of the Rio Grande
Valley. Additionally, developing after 19Z, mainly west of the Rio
Grande Valley...scattered BKN060CB 5SM TSRA. Thunderstorms slowly
spreading/redeveloping eastward through the evening hours. Some
storms could produce pea-size hail and wind gusts of 40-50 knots.
Certainly not a slam dunk, but do have enough confidence to
include chance of thunderstorms for all TAFS this afternoon or
early evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 454 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Continued unseasonably moist, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms today and Saturday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms continuing Sunday, but best chances for rain will
be from the RG Valley east. Monday through Wednesday will become
drier with little or no chance of rain, as the last of the monsoon
moisture gets pushed east of the forecast area. Unseasonably cool
temperatures through Sunday will warm back above normal by Monday
and Tuesday.
Min RH: Lowlands 35-50% through Monday, then 25-35% Tue/Wed.
Gila/Black Range Mtns 40-55% through Monday, then 25-35% Tue/Wed.
Sacramento Mtns 45-65% through Monday, then 30-45% Tue/Wed. Vent
rate fair-good through Monday, becoming poor-fair Tue/Wed.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  84  64  81  63 /  30  60  40  80
Sierra Blanca            80  57  76  56 /  40  60  70  70
Las Cruces               79  59  78  58 /  40  50  50  70
Alamogordo               81  58  78  57 /  30  40  60  80
Cloudcroft               60  43  57  41 /  40  30  70  70
Truth or Consequences    79  58  76  56 /  40  50  50  70
Silver City              73  53  71  51 /  60  60  60  70
Deming                   81  58  80  57 /  50  50  50  70
Lordsburg                78  58  76  57 /  60  60  60  50
West El Paso Metro       81  64  79  63 /  30  60  40  80
Dell City                83  61  78  58 /  20  40  40  60
Fort Hancock             85  63  81  62 /  40  60  60  70
Loma Linda               76  58  71  56 /  40  60  50  80
Fabens                   83  63  80  61 /  40  60  40  80
Santa Teresa             80  61  78  60 /  30  50  40  80
White Sands HQ           81  61  77  60 /  40  50  50  80
Jornada Range            79  58  76  57 /  40  50  50  80
Hatch                    81  59  79  58 /  40  50  50  70
Columbus                 81  61  80  60 /  50  50  40  60
Orogrande                79  58  76  56 /  40  50  50  80
Mayhill                  70  48  66  47 /  40  30  80  70
Mescalero                71  47  68  45 /  40  40  70  80
Timberon                 68  46  64  45 /  40  40  70  80
Winston                  72  48  69  45 /  50  50  60  70
Hillsboro                79  54  75  53 /  50  50  50  70
Spaceport                79  57  75  55 /  40  50  50  80
Lake Roberts             74  48  71  46 /  60  60  70  70
Hurley                   75  53  73  52 /  50  50  60  60
Cliff                    79  56  78  53 /  60  60  60  60
Mule Creek               75  53  74  51 /  60  60  50  50
Faywood                  75  55  72  54 /  50  60  60  70
Animas                   79  57  78  56 /  70  60  60  40
Hachita                  78  57  77  56 /  60  60  60  50
Antelope Wells           79  56  79  56 /  70  60  60  40
Cloverdale               73  55  73  53 /  70  60  60  30
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...17-Hefner

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion