Belvidere, New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

102
FXUS61 KPHI 281857
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
257 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain its influence over the area into
the new work week. A strong cold front will pass through the
area around mid-week, followed by a strong high pressure system
building southward in its wake through the remainder of the
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
We continue to see a clear sky with some sunshine for the
remainder of the day as a high pressure system is building in
from the north and west. This does start to change a bit as we
head through the evening and into tonight. Clouds for our
coastal areas and southeastern zones do start to filter back in.
Overnight, clouds look to be mainly confined south and east of
the I-95 corridor. It will be a clear sky as you head west and
mostly to partly cloudy as you head southeast. Due to a pretty
clear sky overall across the area, light winds, and even some
lingering moisture near the ground from previous rain will lead
to some potential patchy fog. Right now, the best confidence
looks to be Delmarva, parts of New Jersey, and parts of the
Lehigh Valley. Lows tonight are in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
On Monday, our high pressure system remains our dominant weather
feature. This high pressure system does retreat slightly to the
northwest which will allow moisture to usher in from the south in
the form of mid and high level clouds. Now there are ongoing
tropical systems in the Atlantic to our southeast, but with high
pressure being our main dominant weather feature, it will keep those
systems away from our area. What we mainly see is some of this
moisture moving into our area from the south in the form of the
cloud cover mentioned above. There may even be a spotty to
isolated light shower in Delmarva but that seems pretty limited
at this time. Highs on Monday are in the mid 70s to low 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
By Monday night, Humberto and TD 9 will be to our southeast and
south, respectively, sending plenty of high clouds up our way
but otherwise, with minimal influence on our weather just yet.
Weak high pressure will prevail as a strong cold front
approaches from the northwest. This will result in a dry night
with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Both tropical systems likely make their closest approach during
the day Tuesday, but they will remain quite far away. This will
keep the high clouds around, but otherwise, little change in
our weather just yet as the approaching cold front will have yet
to cross the region. Highs near 80 overall.
More substantial changes begin Tuesday night as the Humberto
exits stage right and TD 9 also starts moving eastward, while
the strong cold front finally crosses our region. This will
allow clouds to diminish and northerly winds to increase, with
lows in the 40s far north and west, 50s for most, but still 60s
in the far southeast.
We`ll feel autumn in force on Wednesday, with a gusty north to
northeast breeze as Canadian high pressure builds in behind the
cold front and the tropical systems continue to retreat eastward
over the open Atlantic. Thus, despite much more sun, temps will
be about 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday, closer to 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Canadian high pressure will continue building southward
Wednesday night into Thursday, ending up nearly directly
overhead by Thursday night. Thus, skies will be more clear than
not, with a gradually diminishing breeze. Lows Wednesday night,
with a bit of a breeze still blowing, will range from near 40 to
the mid 50s, while the light winds and clear skies expected
Thursday night should promote some upper 30s to low 50s, perhaps
with a touch of frost in the coldest spots of the Poconos and
NW NJ. Highs Thursday should be quite cool compared to recent
days, with most areas only in the 60s.
High pressure remains pretty much directly overhead thru the
weekend, with gradual moderation of the air mass. Both highs and
lows will creep up 3 or 4 degrees each day, with readings
Sunday ending up in the mid-upper 70s for highs and the mid 50s
to low 60s for lows. Skies should remain more clear than not.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Rest of Today...VFR with winds N-NW around 5 kt or less.
High confidence.
Tonight...VFR initially, but VSBY restrictions in BR possible
(20 to 30 percent) after 06Z. Nearly calm winds. Low confidence
on sub-VFR conditions.
Monday...VFR with winds out of the NE at 5-10 knots.
Outlook...
Monday night through Friday...VFR conditions should prevail.
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions through Monday. A south to
southeast wind today becomes west to northwest late tonight at
5-10 kts. By Monday the wind is northeast at 5-10 knots. Seas 2
to 4 feet.
Outlook...
Wave heights on the ocean will begin to build to Small Craft
Advisory levels as we head through Monday night due to tropical
systems well to our southeast. Winds will also begin to increase
as we head into Tuesday, with gusts starting to reach SCA
levels by days end and wave heights continuing to build. The
worst conditions, with winds gusting potentially to gale force
and wave heights potentially exceeding 10 feet, looks likely to
occur Tuesday night through Wednesday. These both should
gradually ramp downward thereafter, with sub-SCA winds likely
returning by Friday, but wave heights perhaps lingering above 5
feet at least early Friday.
Rip Currents...
Today...Mainly northeasterly wind at 5-10 mph. Breaking wave
heights generally 1-2 feet. A southeasterly swell from offshore
storms starts to increase late in the afternoon. Initially, our
period is around 6 seconds but does start to increase later in
the afternoon with the potential for a longer period swell
developing at a period of around 10 seconds. Given these
factors, have opted to maintain a LOW risk for the development
of dangerous rip currents at all beaches at this time.
For Monday, the increasing influence of longer period swells
around 13 to 16 seconds combined with there being multiple swell
groups will result in a MODERATE risk for the development of
dangerous rip currents at all beaches. Generally expect wave
heights in the surf zone to be around 2-3 feet.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons/RCM
NEAR TERM...Guzzo
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...Guzzo/RCM
MARINE...Guzzo/RCM

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion