Belgrade, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

331
FXUS65 KTFX 192023
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
223 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Drier conditions are expected through Saturday and warm conditions
  through the weekend.
- Gusty winds are expected alone the Rocky Mountain Front Sunday.
- Cool and wetter conditions set up Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
- Meteorological Overview:
Transient ridging aloft will allow for drier and warmer
conditions to continue today and Saturday. This ridge will also
allow for above normal temperatures to persist through Sunday.
Sunday and Monday, this ridge will break down as a trough will
begin to swing across the state. With this ridge breakdown, and
increase in mid-level winds. These stronger wind aloft mixing down
to the surface will bring gusty winds to the Rocky Mountain Front
Sunday, and breezy winds to the plains Monday. A cold front will
bring scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.
Models still hint this wave passing through will close off into a
closed low system. Though positioning of this will effect how
long precipitation last into Monday. This system will bring in
colder air aloft, which will cool temperatures down at the
surface. Depending on how much colder air this closed low pulls, a
dusting of snow at some higher peaks (7,500-8,000ft) doesn`t seem
unreasonable.
After this system passes, warm and dry condtions look to set up for
most of the remainder of the week. Ensembles are in a bit of a
disagreement still on how to handle this next trough building along
the Pacific Coast towards the end of next week. Differences in the
timing of this wave and the amplitude/strength leaves details
towards the end of the forecast period uncertain.
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
Models don`t show these winds to be unusually strong this time of
year. Since this is the first windy event in the Northern Rocky
Mountain Front, people and the trees will feel it. Probabilities for
50 mph winds are up to 70% Sunday along the immediate foothills.
These stronger winds don`t extend to far from the foothills, with
the Cut Bank area only at a 40% chance for 45 mph. Breezy winds set
up along the Central Plains Monday, with up to a 50% chance for 40
mph winds extending north from the Central Plains to the Hi-Line.
The main impacts will be for strong crosswinds for trailers and
high profile vehicles and outdoor recreation in and near Glacier
Park.
How much precipitation we get will be determined by the evolution
of this closed system if it forms. So far, the bulk of
precipitation will be concentrated in Central/Southwest Montana,
with a 30-70% chance for 0.25" of rain Sunday into Monday morning.
For the Madison and Gallatin ranges there is a 30-40% chance for
0.50". -Wilson
&&
.AVIATION...
19/18Z TAF Period
VFR conditions with few to scattered high clouds and light and
variable winds will persist through the TAF period. There is
around a 20% chance of fog developing along the Milk River Valley
tonight, however, impacts to KHVR are not expected at this time.
-thor
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  86  51  83 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  45  83  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  49  85  51  80 /   0   0   0  20
BZN  45  82  46  79 /   0   0   0  20
WYS  35  73  36  66 /   0   0  10  40
DLN  44  79  45  75 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  47  84  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  49  81  51  81 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

NWS TFX Office Area Forecast Discussion