Beech Mountain, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

205
FXUS61 KRNK 251051
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
651 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A period of unsettled weather is expected from today through
the upcoming weekend. A cold front approaching from the Ohio
Valley is forecast to cross the mountains today and tonight,
then stall over the eastern Mid-Atlantic this weekend. This is
expected to bring multiple rounds of showers and a chance for
thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...
Key messages:
1) Expect showers with localized heavy downpours.
2) Monitor for thunderstorms and take shelter if needed.
An approaching cold front and associated upper-level trough will
provide the necessary lift for showers and thunderstorms today
and tonight. Strengthening southwest flow aloft ahead of the
front will bring a deep plume of Gulf moisture into the region,
this very moist airmass featuring PWATs in excess of 2 inches.
This high moisture content will support heavy rain rates.
While widespread cloud cover may limit daytime heating and
overall instability, sufficient atmospheric shear will be
present to allow some of the thunderstorms to become marginally
strong to severe this afternoon and evening, mainly over the
piedmont where somewhat better opportunity for solar insolation
will exist during the afternoon. The saturated, nearly moist-
adiabatic profiles in the mid-levels suggest that the primary
severe weather threat will be from wet downbursts or
microbursts, which could produce scattered damaging wind gusts.
Although the thermodynamic environment is not ideal for
widespread severe weather, an isolated tornado cannot be
entirely ruled out for the piedmont.
The actual surface cold front is expected to cross the
mountains tonight, winds becoming northerly by daybreak
Friday. Dewpoints will remain elevated through tonight so
expecting mild conditions to persist through the near term.
High temperatures today are expected to range from the 70s
mountains to mid 80s piedmont with lows tonight in the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 430 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
1) Cold front stalls just to our southeast.
2) With front nearby, rain chances continue.
3) Temperatures fall behind the front to near to just below average
for the weekend.
Cold front passage predawn Friday will bring a wind shift with
wind flow expected to be out of the north for Friday and from
the northeast for the weekend. Rain chances through the weekend
are expected to be the highest along and east of the Blue Ridge,
closer to the stalled front. Rain chance will be lowest in our
western CWA, but still expecting an overall high abundance of
cloud cover there too due to the lingering upper level trough.
There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall this weekend,
especially along the southern Blue Ridge where easterly upslope
low level flow is expected to enhance precipitation rates
there. In addition, will have to monitor for where stalled
front provides focus for heavy rain. Some of the models suggest
the front may get pushed back to the west due to increasing
southeast flow from the tropical Atlantic. If this occurs our
piedmont counties may partake in a healthy wetting rain for the
weekend...another area to watch for minor flooding in spite of
the dry antecedent conditions. In general expecting 1-2 inches
of rain along and east of the Blue Ridge between now and 8AM
Sunday with isolated amounts upwards of 3 inches along the
southern Blue Ridge.
Due to the abundance of cloud cover, the diurnal/nocturnal
temperature change will be small with highs in the 60s/70s and
lows in the 50s/60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 500 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
1) Rain chances continue each day through mid-week.
2) Near normal temperatures.
3) Uncertainty with potential tropical systems and their impacts.
For the beginning of next week, an upper low remains cutoff
over the southern Appalachians with feed of moisture driven into
the area from the southeast per influence from the tropical
Atlantic. Stalled surface front is progged somewhere between the
piedmont and coast.
There is great uncertainty in the forecast for early next week, as
it is looking increasingly likely that not one, but two tropical
systems will form in the Western Atlantic over the weekend. These
systems will be side-by-side and heading north towards the US
initially. The eastern system will not impact the CONUS, as it
is expected to turn northeast and then out to sea. There is
less confidence in the western system and where it will go due
to a complex synoptic setup. The cutoff upper low over the
Southeastern US could grab the system and pull it towards the
Eastern US. If this occurs, then tropical impacts for our area
would become more likely. However, models currently are leaning
towards the eastern tropical system becoming stronger, which
will draw in the weaker western system and pull it away from
land with little to no direct impacts for our area. This could
change as more data is gathered about steering currents and the
potential systems as they develop. Regardless of the track,
tropical moisture from the Atlantic will be advected into the
area early next week, enhanced by flow around the upper low over
the US. While currently PoPs are kept low, this could change
once details become known.
Temperatures remain on the cool side, though stay near normal. Highs
each day will be in the 70s through midweek, when 60s return west of
the Blue Ridge. Lows will be in the 50s/60s.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Thursday...
Unsettled weather through the 24 hour valid TAF with highly
variable cigs/vsbys due to scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Upper trough is centered just west of the
Appalachians and will contribute to poor flight conditions today
across the forecast area. Expect areas of MVFR with LCL IFR due
to vsby restrictions from showers/storms. Nearly saturated
airmass will also contribute to low cigs with potential for
ridge obscurations where cloud base intersects terrain. Some
improvement in cloud base may occur this afternoon per daytime
heating, but not confident on overall flight category at any
given time this afternoon due to the extensive coverage of
showers and potential for sudden drop in cig/vsby when they
occur.
Winds today are expected to be light from the south this
morning then increase from the southwest this afternoon...and
gusty (to near 20 kts) over the piedmont. Outflow winds
associated with thunderstorms may gust up to 30 kts. Winds are
forecast to diminish after sunset.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Chances of showers and thunderstorms will persist through the
remainder of this work week as a broad upper level trough of low
pressure and associated surface cold front slowly tracks
eastward and across the Appalachian Mountains. MVFR ceilings and
visibilities are possible in the heavier showers, and some
patchy fog may occur during the overnight hours in response to
the increasing moisture. By Saturday, the cold front should
reach the East Coast but high uncertainty as to whether drier
air brings more widespread VFR conditions. Models are now
trending wetter with low pressure stalling over the area and
bringing unsettled weather for the weekend in addition to
tropical concerns increasing near the coast.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JCB/PM
AVIATION...PM

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion