Bay Pines, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

093
FXUS62 KTBW 161749
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
149 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Looking at some very similiar conditions to yesterday with dry air
to the north and slightly more moisture down south. Shower activity
again today should stay south of I-4 with the best chance in SW
Florida.
We will see a bump up in storm chances tomorrow an an upper level
trough pushes through the state. As it goes through we see PW bump
back up to near 2 inches. This will result in a more typical summer
time pattern with scattered showers and storms across the whole
CWA. The trough will move away for Thursday but PW will remain
around 2 inches for one more day allowing for scattered showers
and storms once again.
Drier air will filter back in for Friday and Saturday keeping most
of the area dry except for SW Florida. Moisture looks to slowly
return by Sunday and next Monday bringing scattered showers and
storms back into the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
VFR conditions expected for the rest of today with VCTS possible
for a few hours at FMY and RSW. Moisture and better storms chances
expected to return tomorrow with VCTS introduced in the late
morning at southern terminals.. Winds will generally stay below
10 knots through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Winds will remain out of the east and northeast around 5
to 10 knots through Thursday. Winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots
by Friday and Saturday. Best storm chances will be tomorrow as an
upper level trough pushes through the area. For the rest of the week
you can expect isolated showers mainly south of Tampa Bay.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
An upper level trough will bring scattered showers and
storms to the area tomorrow. For the rest of the week we will remain
dry north of I-4 with scattered storms expected south of I-4.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  75  88  74 /  10  10  50  20
FMY  91  74  87  73 /  40  30  70  50
GIF  91  73  89  73 /  30  20  60  20
SRQ  90  73  88  72 /  10  20  60  40
BKV  90  69  89  69 /  10  10  40  20
SPG  88  77  88  74 /  10  10  60  30
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Davis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion