Barnard Township, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

177
FXUS61 KCAR 242358
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
758 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach from the west Thursday, cross the
region Thursday night, then exit across the Maritimes Friday.
High pressure crosses the region Saturday, with a cold front
then crossing Sunday. High pressure will begin to build toward
the region Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
Latest satellite imagery shows mainly cloudy skies across the
region at this hour. High pressure will continue to slide off
the coast to the south of Nova Scotia later tonight in advance
of an approaching warm front. The current forecast still
remains in good shape and no significant changes were made to
the going forecast.
See updated aviation section.
previous discussion
Surface high pressure is drifting east over Nova Scotia this
evening. Light and variable winds and generally weak downslope
off the Miramichi Highlands of New Brunswick will begin to go
calm before the return flow kicks in. Moisture aloft is
advecting northeast with another new system moving towards us.
Expecting brief breaks in clouds over eastern zones this evening
before clouds return. Temperatures drop back into the low to
mid 40s north with the most clearing and then mainly mid to
upper 40s around 50F for remaining areas. Patchy to areas of fog
likely develops overnight especially in valleys. Patchy drizzle
may develop in the upslope areas of the Longfellow Mtns as
southerly winds off the Gulf of Maine develops.
Tomorrow, moisture continues advecting northward as the 500mb
trof approaches with increasing upper level divergence to
generate a surface low. Surface low will track into Western New
England in the afternoon with rain developing slowly from
southwest to northeast. It will take till the afternoon for
steady widespread rain to reach the western CWA and by evening
to eastern CWA. Highs top out in the mid to upper 60s with
southerly winds increasing 5-15mph.
Tomorrow night the low will track northeast as a warm front
heads northward to the Downeast coast. Steady rain expected
tomorrow night with pockets of moderate to heavy rain at times
especially Downeast. Cannot rule out a few thunderstorms within
the heavier rain in the warm sector areas. Track of the low is
still a little uncertain but expecting Downeast to see the best
rainfall in the warm sector. Looking at rainfall totals but
Friday morning to be a widespread 1-1.5 inches for the Central
Highlands to Downeast coast. Pockets of heavier amounts up to
1.75 inches possible Downeast. Across the Moosehead Region
northward to Northern Maine is generally expected to be a 0.5 to
1 inch of rainfall. Southerly winds will be gusty 10-20mph
until the low tracks through the area then relax as they shift
W-SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure exits across the Maritimes early Friday, while a cold
front and upper trof cross the region. Rain is likely early
Friday with the exiting system, then tapering to showers along
with partly sunny skies. The upper trof and cold front will exit
early Friday night, with high pressure then building toward the
region late. Could still have the slight chance of a shower
Friday evening across mostly northern areas. Otherwise, expect
partly cloudy skies early then mostly clear late. With low level
moisture from the recent rain could also have patchy fog later
Friday night. High pressure crosses the region Saturday, then
begins to exit to the east Saturday night. Expect mostly sunny
skies Saturday, then mostly clear/partly cloudy Saturday night.
Expect slightly above normal level temperatures Friday. Near
normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front should approach the region Sunday, while an upper level
disturbance tracks north of Maine. The cold front then crosses
Sunday night. Expect mostly clear/partly cloudy skies Sunday through
Sunday night. High pressure centered northwest of Maine should then
gradually build toward the region Monday through Wednesday with
mostly clear/partly cloudy skies. Expect slightly above normal level
temperatures Sunday/Monday. Near normal, to slightly above normal,
level temperatures Tuesday. Slightly below normal level temperatures
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL...VFR/MVFR ceilings expected through
Thursday. Patchy fog possible at the terminals tonight which
may reduce visibility at times but confidence is low. Light
variable wind tonight then S 5 to 10 kt Thursday.
Outlook for Thursday night...MVFR/IFR. Rain. S wind around 10 kt
becoming W late.
KBGR/KBHB...VFR/MVFR ceilings expected tonight. Periods of IFR
in lower ceilings and patchy fog possible but confidence too low
to mention in TAF. Thursday MVFR early, then IFR by afternoon in
rain. Light S tonight, then S to SE wind 10 to 15 kt Thursday.
Outlook for Thursday night...IFR/LIFR. Rain. S wind 10 to 15 kt
becoming W late.
SHORT TERM:
Friday...MVFR/IFR early, then VFR/MVFR. Rain likely early, then a
chance of showers. West/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming
west/northwest.
Friday night...Variable conditions with any patchy fog late.
Occasional MVFR with a slight chance of showers early. Otherwise,
VFR. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.
Saturday...VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.
Saturday night...VFR early. VFR/MVFR late. South/southwest
winds 5 to 10 knots.
Sunday...VFR. West/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to
20 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots.
Sunday night...Variable conditions with any patchy fog late.
Otherwise, VFR. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots.
Monday...VFR. Southwest/west winds 10 to 15 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas generally below SCA levels through
Thursday night. Visibility will be reduced to 1 to 3 NM in
patchy late night fog and drizzle tonight and then in developing
rain and fog Thursday into Thursday night.
SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
Friday through Saturday night. Rain and patchy fog early Friday,
then a chance of showers.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...TWD/Sinko
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...TWD/Sinko/Norcross
Marine...TWD/Sinko/Norcross

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion