Balkan, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

336
FXUS63 KJKL 291200 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather is expected through most of the next week.
- Moisture moving onshore from the Atlantic on the north side of
  Tropical System Imelda could bring a few showers into southeast
  Kentucky on Tuesday.
- Confidence remains high that the impacts from the tropical
  system will be minimal across the area.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 735 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over the Ohio Valley and down
into Kentucky. This has kept the winds light and skies clear this
night. These conditions favored good radiational cooling for much
of the time and a resultant ridge to valley temperature divide
through eastern Kentucky - while also allowing for areas of fog in
the river valleys that have become locally dense. Specifically,
temperatures vary from the mid to upper 50s in some of the low
spots to the mid 60s on many hilltop location. Meanwhile,
dewpoints are running in the mid to upper 50s, most places.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in very good
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict 5h ridging stretched west to east through the Ohio
Valley north of troughing over the Southeast anchored by the
tropical system off the southeast coast of Florida. Over the next
24 to 36 hours this will evolve into a bit of an omega block with
troughing working into the Southern Plains and ridging holding
over the western Ohio Valley and troughing stays put over the
coastal Southeast. While the ridging will dominate most of the JKL
CWA, some mid level energy will retrograde into far southeast
Kentucky today and tonight - lingering into Tuesday - as part of
this pattern evolution before it is shoved southeast by the core
of the ridging starting to approach the area. The small model
spread during the short term portion of the forecast supported
using the NBM as the starting point of the grids with minimal
adjustments needed - mainly just to include some terrain based
enhancements for temperatures tonight - away from the cloudier
southeast, but also to add some details from the CAMs for low
PoPs tonight into Tuesday.
Sensible weather features another unseasonably warm day with
temperatures reaching the mid 80s for highs. Expect partly cloudy
conditions with patchy valley fog tonight for most of the area.
However, there will be a small chance of a shower or two in the
far southeast tonight and again on Tuesday. Cannot completely rule
out any thunder chances but instability looks too low to include
at this time. More in the way of clouds and the potential for
convection in the southeast will likely make for temperatures a
tad lower than those of today, but still above normal, in the
lower 80s.
The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
adjusting temperatures tonight for terrain based details but also
used the latest CAMs consensus to tweak PoPs tonight and on
Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 415 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2025
The main changes to the extended forecast this morning were to
enhance the terrain based differences of a ridge to valley split
for temperatures each night through next weekend. The PoPs still
are looking quite limited during the work week and into the
weekend.
The previous long term discussion follows:
The main theme for much of the extended is strengthening upper and
surface ridging into the Ohio valley and Appalachians keeping
conditions dry and temperatures pleasant. Main effects from the
tropical system across the Bahamas into the Atlantic ocean will
remain east of the spine of the Appalachians with the exception of a
few showers Tuesday.
For Tuesday, a shear axis and associated deformation zone will move
into the central and southern Appalachians. Enough moisture and
instability is available to produce isolated to widely scattered
showers mainly for areas near the KY/VA state-line. Instability is
limited with ensemble mean CAPES less than 500. Can not rule out
thunder but confidence is low.
For Wednesday through next weekend, good agreement between ensemble
analysis and latest deterministic models in depicting upper and
surface ridging into the Ohio valley and Appalachians. End result
will be pleasant and dry conditions. As mentioned by previous
forecaster, the pattern will support a ridge/valley temperature
split with some mid to upper 40s particularly for valleys and 50s
for areas of more open terrain and ridges.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2025
Valley fog is quite evident on satellite early this morning with
localized VLIFR conditions. This will dissipate over the next hour
or so, then VFR conditions hold through the period, with winds
less than 10 kts - generally out of the northeast.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DH/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion