Baldwin, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

868
FXUS61 KPBZ 301538
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1138 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with a warming trend is expected into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and warm today, seasonable lows overnight.
-------------------------------------------------------------
High clouds continue overhead as the cirrus shield from Imelda
skirts over the eastern seaboard. Temperatures remain above
average under a weak eastern CONUS ridges overtop of the lows
in the tropical Atlantic. This will keep high temperatures
around 10 degrees above normal.
Northeast flow will establish through the day and bring in
lower dewpoint and drier air as a longwave trough digs into New
england and the Canadian maritimes and high pressure moves in
behind. Cirrus coverage will decline by tonight, giving way to
mostly clear skies overnight. Even with clear skies, light
northeast flow and drier air should preclude widespread fog
outside of valleys overnight as lows dip to around their
seasonal normals.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry conditions continue
- Slightly cooler temperatures.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Ensembles remain confident with ridging remaining in place over
the eastern CONUS maintaining dry conditions throughout the
period. A slight decrease in heights and northerly flow will
slightly decrease temperatures, however, highs will remain above
normal. Due to clear skies and light winds overnight, low
temperatures are expected to remain around or just below normal
due to more efficient radiational cooling.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- High confidence in warm and dry conditions prevailing through the
weekend.
- Low confidence on timing/strength of upper-level trough at the
  start of next week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The ensembles remain consistent in showing the broad eastern
CONUS ridge remaining through the weekend, returning above
normal temperatures to the region and maintaining dry
conditions. Into the start of next week, an upper level trough
will begin to move into the area. There is low confidence in the
latest ensemble guidance as to when the trough will arrive and
how strong it will be. A stronger or slower trough increases the
probability of observing measurable rain (>= 0.01") on
Tuesday/Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High clouds are expected to generally pull south throughout the
day Tuesday courtesy of the cirrus shield from Imelda, replaced
by a light NE wind as high pressure establish behind a
northeast longwave trough.
Dry advection around high pressure should keep precipitation
chances away for the rest of the period and tamper fog chances
apart from isolated river valley spots on Wednesday morning,
though no mentions were included for now with low confidence.
.OUTLOOK....
Outside of patchy morning river valley fog, VFR is expected
through Saturday under high pressure.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Milcarek
NEAR TERM...Milcarek
SHORT TERM...Lupo
LONG TERM...Lupo
AVIATION...Milcarek

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion