Bailey, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

488
FXUS65 KBOU 022155
AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
355 PM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry with warmer than normal conditions through Friday.
- Showers and a few storms enter the picture Saturday and Saturday
  night, with potential for a few severe storms over the
  northeastern plains. A new dusting of snow likely (70% chance)
  for the mountains.
- Turning cooler late Saturday, and staying cool through early
  next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Another mild and dry day is expected across the forecast area today
under upper-level ridging. Satellite imagery shows mostly clear
skies stretching from the Desert Southwest all the way to western
Minnesota. Upstream, a shortwave trough is seen entering the
Western CONUS, with an upper-level closed low visible, spinning
just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. The combination of
subsidence, solar heating, and 700 mb temperatures ranging between
9C to 15C across the forecast area, we are expecting afternoon
high temperatures to be about 10-15F above normal today, with
widespread 80s expected across the lower elevations, 70s for the
foothills and mountain valleys. Overnight lows will be similar to
last night`s.
Despite still showing some small discrepancies, ensembles largely
agree that the upper-level trough will move eastward across the
Great Basin on Friday. Ahead of its arrival, we are expecting
another dry day with above normal afternoon high temperatures
across the forecast area. 700 mb temps will warm a few degrees
under increasing southwesterly flow aloft, warming afternoon high
temps a few degrees over today`s. This will bring us near record
high temps across the plains (KDEN hit 88F on this day in 2005).
We should see mostly clear skies continue through early afternoon
when moisture will start to increase from west to east. The
increasing southwesterly flow aloft mixed with lee troughing east
of the Rockies will result in breezy conditions in our mountain
valleys and across portions of the plains, where 35-45 mph gusts
will be possible through the afternoon. Can`t rule out some
scattered afternoon showers or weak storms developing in the
afternoon, mainly for the northern mountains. Could even see some
light snow over the highest elevations overnight.
Saturday will be an active day as the trough passes across
Colorado. QG forcings reach their max in the afternoon as a near
70 kt 500mb jet moves over the Rockies. Showers and a few storms
will move across the higher elevations first before making their
way onto the lower elevations as the day progresses. At the
surface, southerly winds will increase, with gusts between 35-45
mph possible across the eastern plains and mountain valleys. Bulk
shear values approaching 50 kts will be possible across portions
of the northern plains where afternoon temps are forecast to be in
the mid 80s. We can`t rule out the threat for a few severe storms
developing in the late afternoon/early evening, mainly for the
northern plains, where a cold front is expected to move into
northern Colorado, and the SPC has put us in a Marginal Risk.
Much cooler temps and lighter winds are expected on Sunday behind
the cold front. Afternoon highs will struggle to make it into the
70s across the plains. We will see southwesterly flow aloft
diminish as the jet moves across the Northern Plains with the
exiting trough. There will be enough residual moisture in place
for some afternoon showers to develop, with temperatures cool
enough to drop snow levels to near 10,000 ft for the northern
mountains, where we may see an inch or two accumulate at our
highest elevations overnight.
Ensembles still show some discrepancies with regards to our next
trough expected to drop into the Great Basin, but it`s looking
like cooler temperatures will stick around through the beginning
of next week, with precipitation chances each afternoon before a
warming and drying trend returns by midweek.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday/...
Issued at 1110 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VFR conditions through the TAF period. Mostly clear skies and dry
conditions are expected through the TAF period. Current light and
VRB winds are expected to transition to the east by 21Z this
afternoon. Hi-res guidance suggests a shear zone develops to the
southeast of KDEN/KAPA that will shift winds to the NE for a few
hours between 0Z-2/3Z this evening. However, if this
develops/pushes slightly more northwestward, this would result in
winds becoming more S/SE rather than the NE that are currently in
the TAF. Beyond 3Z, wind direction uncertainties diminish as
southerly winds are expected through the overnight hours at
KDEN/KAPA. KBJC will see persistent light and VRB winds for the
evening and overnight hours.
For Friday, drainage winds are expected to become light and VRB
once again before transitioning to the east for the afternoon.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bonner
AVIATION...Bonner

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion