Avondale, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

647
FXUS61 KPHI 010716
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
316 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over Hudson Bay will build south into New England
by Thursday, then will park itself off the Northeast and Mid-
Atlantic coasts through the weekend and into the start of the
new week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Canadian high pressure will be moving in from the north,
shunting both Hurricane Humberto and Imelda out to sea and away
from our area. As Imelda specifically pushes out to sea, clouds
decrease as the cirrus shield retreats south and eastward, which
will result in a sunny day over the area. Overall pretty nice
with highs in the upper 60/low 70s, which is about normal for
early October. With the surface high to the north and tropical
systems to the south and east, a tight gradient remains. This
will result in wind gusts 25-35 MPH near and along the coast,
with around 15-25 MPH gusts away from the coast, but east of the
Fall Line. Could get a few gusts up to 40 MPH at the beaches of
southern New Jersey and Delaware.
Winds decrease tonight as the high gets closer and the gradient
weakens. The incoming high from the north doesn`t quite get
over us tonight, so the bottom won`t completely fall out with
temperatures overnight. There still will be a crisp chill in the
air though with lows in the mid to upper 40s. In northern NJ
and southern Poconos, it will be even colder, with lows in the
upper 30s/low 40s. Thinking its just a touch too warm for frost,
but would not be surprised to see the most sheltered locations
getting down into the mid 30s. Not nearly widespread enough to
issue a Frost Advisory though for the northern tier of counties.
Lows over Delmarva and near the coast likely stay above 50
tonight with the influence of the warmer ocean and bay water.
Mostly clear skies expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be centered over the northern New England on
Thursday, and the base of this high will be down into the Mid-
Atlantic. Both Hurricane Humberto and Hurricane Imelda will be
well east of the Carolina/Mid-Atlantic coasts and will drift out
to sea. The center of the high will build south of Long Island
on Friday where it will meander into at least Friday night.
Conditions will be dry during this time. Shortwave energy
passing through the region will bring some high clouds from time
to time Thursday through Friday, then clear skies on tap Friday
night.
Another seasonably cool day on tap for Thursday with highs in
the mid and upper 60s. There may be enough high clouds to keep
true radiational cooling conditions from developing, and lows
Thursday night will be in the low to mid 40s, for most of the
southern Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and northern New Jersey, and in
the low 50s for the urban corridor from Philadelphia to
Wilmington and Delmarva. Lows will be in the mid 50s or so at
the coasts due to the warmer ocean waters. Some patchy frost may
develop in the sheltered valleys of the Pocono Mountains and
far northwest New Jersey, but that should be about it.
As the high builds south, warm air advection develops for
Friday and Friday night. Highs will be in the low 70s on Friday,
and then in the upper 40s to low 50s Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will lie off the Northeast and Mid-
Atlantic coasts from Saturday through Monday. The high shifts
south on Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west.
In terms of sensible weather, generally mostly sunny skies
during the day and clear to partly cloudy skies at night. A warm
air mass spreads over the area with highs generally in the mid
to upper 70s on Saturday, and in the upper 70s to low 80s from
Sunday through Tuesday. Lows at night will be in the low to mid
50s over the weekend, then in the upper 50s to low 60s Monday
night.
Some afternoon showers and perhaps thunderstorms may develop
Tuesday afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Rest of Tonight (through 12z)...VFR. Northeast winds around 10
kt. High confidence.
Today...VFR. Northeast winds around 10 kt at KRDG/KABE, 10-15
kt at the I-95 terminals and KMIV, with 15-20 kt winds at KACY.
Gusts at KTTN/KPNE/KPHL/KILG hover around 20 kt, with gusts at
MIV around 20-25 kt. Gusts expected to be highest along and
near the coast, with a period of 25-30 kt gusts anticipated at
KACY during the day. High confidence in prevailing VFR, moderate
confidence in timing and magnitude of winds increasing.
Tonight...VFR. Northeast winds 5-10 kt. High confidence.
Outlook...
Thursday through Sunday...VFR/NSW.
&&
.MARINE...
A Gale Warning is in effect through today for all ocean zones
as wind gusts of 35-40 kt out of the northeast are expected.
Seas 7 to 11 feet. Winds will be a touch lighter on Delaware
Bay, around 25-30 kt, where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect.
A few gusts over 30 kt are possible at times near the mouth of
Delaware Bay.
For tonight, the Gale Warning should be able to come down, but
will need to be replaced by an SCA whenever it does expire.
Northeast winds 20-30 kt with seas 6 to 9 feet. SCA remains in
effect through Thursday on lower Delaware Bay with northeast
winds around 25 kt expected. Winds should decrease enough for
the upper Delaware Bay by tonight, with the SCA expiring at 6
PM. Anticipating 15-20 kt northeast winds overnight for the
upper bay with no current marine headlines in place.
Outlook...
SCA remains in effect for lower Delaware Bay, and a SCA will be
needed for the ocean after the Gale Warning ends. NE winds will
range from 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas on the
ocean will generally be 6 to 9 feet, subsiding to 4 to 6 feet
Thursday night. Elevated seas may linger into Friday.
Sub-SCA conditions expected for the weekend after seas subside
to less than 5 feet on Friday.
Rip Currents...
A high risk of rip currents is likely to continue through the
end of the week. However, the surf program ended on Tuesday,
September 30. No further surf forecasts or rip current
statements will be issued until May 2026.
Always obey posted Beach Flags. If you enter the surf zone,
always have a floatation device with you and swim near a
lifeguard if possible. If caught in a rip current, relax and
float and do not swim against the current. If able, swim
parallel to the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore
and call or wave for help.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Strengthening northeast winds and long period swells arriving
from Humberto through Wednesday will lead to a piling up of
water along the Atlantic coast, back bays, and Delaware Bay.
Widespread minor coastal flooding will develop for these areas
with the Wednesday afternoon to evening high tide cycle. Minor
coastal flooding may linger within the back bays of Ocean and
Sussex Counties into Thursday. Spotty minor coastal flooding is
forecast for the tidal Delaware River.
A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect to highlight the
threat of minor coastal flooding from Ocean County and south and
Delaware Bay. We will continue to monitor the latest
observations for possible expansion of the advisory to the tidal
Delaware River.
Spotty minor coastal flooding is forecast to occur with the
Wednesday night and Thursday night high tides along the eastern
shore of Chesapeake Bay, however impacts are expected to be
limited enough to preclude and advisory at this time.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT
     this evening for NJZ016.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     this evening for NJZ020>027.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT
     this evening for DEZ001.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     this evening for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ431.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...Hoeflich
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...Hoeflich/MPS
MARINE...Hoeflich/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion