Aurora, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

572
FXUS61 KCLE 210741
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
341 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore of New England today as low
pressure slowly drifts from the Upper Midwest into the northern
Great Lakes by Monday. This low will drag a cold front slowly
across the region Monday, with the front remaining nearby
through late week as a series of low pressure systems track
along it. High pressure will attempt to return by next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
The well-advertised change to a more active pattern that will
bring opportunities for badly needed rainfall is occuring this
morning. The strong Canadian high at the surface located over
New England this morning will drift offshore through the day
allowing the broad mid/upper low over the Upper Midwest to
slowly drift eastward. This low will reach the northern Great
Lakes by Monday, with the trailing cold front moving into NW
Ohio by Monday morning. The front will then take its time moving
east, and all deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to
slow the passage of the front, which now looks to be Monday
afternoon into Monday night. This all points to good
opportunities for most areas to see measurable rain between now
and Monday evening, but the greatest chances have shifted to
late tonight and Monday, with today trending warmer and drier.
This does not mean that today will be totally dry. A warm front
extending east from the low is sitting over northern Ohio early
this morning, with a well-defined theta-e and instability
gradient gradually lifting north with the front. This front will
continue to lift north of the region through mid morning,
placing all of northern Ohio and NW PA in the warm sector for
this afternoon. Deep southerly flow and associated warm/moist
advection in the warm sector will support a very warm and humid
day. Forecast soundings show little in the way of capping and
MLCAPE values rising over 1000 J/Kg this afternoon, so widely
scattered convection should develop. The main issue is forcing.
Since the progression of the mid/upper low into the northern
Great Lakes has slowed, the main piece of shortwave energy
rotating around its base across Lower Michigan has also slowed
to late tonight and Monday morning. This does not give much
confidence in seeing anything more than isolated to widely
scattered coverage this afternoon and evening, with coverage
slowly increasing from west to east late tonight. With this in
mind, continued the trend of slowing the timing and coverage of
POPS compared to NBM today and tonight utilizing an
NBM/CONSSHORT blend. If anything can develop this afternoon and
evening, weak deep layer effective shear of 20-25 knots and some
dry mid-level air could lead to locally gusty winds, so a SWODY1
Marginal Risk remains areawide. The best chance for this is in
NW and north central Ohio.
As the aforementioned shortwave and associated 60-80 knot upper
jet streak lift across Lower Michigan late tonight and Monday,
synoptic forcing beneath the right entrance region of the jet
will strengthen frontogenesis ahead of the slow moving cold
front. This combined with a strengthening low-level jet and
resultant moisture advection will finally allow widespread
showers and embedded convection to move into the region. There
will probably be an initial round late tonight and Monday
morning, then depending on how much sunshine and destabilization
can occur in the afternoon, stronger thunderstorms could develop
for the afternoon and evening. Probabilities for most areas to
see at least one half inch of QPF are over 90% late tonight and
Monday, with some areas likely to see over 1 inch leading to
some drought relief. In terms of any severe weather, the latest
HREF shows increasing probabilities for updraft helicity tracks
Monday afternoon over mainly NE Ohio and NW PA. This makes sense
since shear and forcing will be higher, so depending on the
amount of instability, a few severe storms with strong winds are
possible. PWATs over 1.75 inches also support locally heavy
rainfall, but given the drought, any flooding issues would be
super localized to urban areas.
Highs will warm into the mid/upper 80s today, with upper 70s/low
80s Monday. A very mild night is expected tonight, with lows in
the low/mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will decrease Monday night
with loss of daytime heating and as the shortwave and associated
forcing lift out of the region. However, the cold front is
likely to stall over or just SE of the region by Tuesday in
response to a second mid/upper closed low tracking from the
Rockies into the Plains and eventually phasing with the remnants
of the Great Lakes mid/upper low by Wednesday. Guidance is
finally coming into somewhat better agreement on this pattern
evolution, with a broad closed low meandering around the Midwest
and OH/TN Valley regions for the second half of the week. This
will keep an active and moist SW flow in place over the Ohio
Valley and southern Great Lakes regions, with multiple pieces of
shortwave energy traversing the frontal boundary. The main
message with this is that additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will occur Tuesday through Wednesday night, but
timing and placement of the heaviest axis of QPF is more
uncertain. The 00Z NAM suggests a strong surface wave rippling
up the front late Tuesday into Wednesday, but this may be
convective feedback. Given the uncertainty with timing the
individual shortwaves and exact placement of the boundary, kept
NBM POPS through the period, with the highest chances gradually
shifting south and eastward by Wednesday and Wednesday night.
The additional rains will bring drought relief Tuesday into
Wednesday, but they will not be all day rains, with plenty of
dry time as well.
Highs in the low/mid 70s Tuesday will cool into mainly the low
70s Wednesday. Lows in the low/mid 60s Monday night will cool
into the upper 50s/low 60s Tuesday night and mainly mid/upper
50s Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Confidence further decreases in the extended given uncertainty
with how the big closed low will eventually eject which affects
how soon the frontal boundary will push away from the region.
Stayed with NBM POPS and temperatures Thursday through Saturday,
with the idea of a slow drying trend. A deepening northern
stream mid/upper trough diving into the Great Lakes next weekend
may finally kick the old system out, but this may not occur
until Sunday. Highs will generally be in the low 70s with lows
in the low/mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions are observed areawide and expected to continue
through at least early Sunday afternoon. Scattered showers with
a few thunderstorms are expected to develop Sunday afternoon
through about midnight or so. This is mainly expected in the
region between I-75 and I-71, though some lingering/dissipating
showers may continue eastward across Northeast Ohio. Non-VFR
will primarily be limited to heavier showers or thunderstorms
with brief visibility restrictions. Thunderstorms may produce
brief, stronger wind gusts with peak wind gusts in the strongest
thunderstorms expected to be around 30-40 knots.
South to southeast winds of around 5-8 knots increase to around
8 to 10 knots late this morning through tonight. Stronger winds
due to downsloping will affect KERI, with gusts commonly
exceeding 20 knots with brief peak wind gusts in the 25-30 knot
range.
Outlook...Periodic non-VFR is expected scattered showers and
thunderstorms through Thursday, though the best chance for non-
VFR will be Monday night through Wednesday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Southerly flow is expected today, generally in the 10-15 knot range.
A brief period of 20 knot flow is possible in the eastern basin late
this evening into early tonight. Will have to keep an eye on this
for a potential short duration small craft advisory. Winds tend to
be southwest around 5 to 15 knots Monday through Tuesday before a
cold front crosses Lake Erie Tuesday night. Winds veer to out of the
east-northeast Wednesday and Thursday. Wind speeds are currently
forecast to be around 15 knots though there are low probabilities
for 20 knots and 3-5 ft waves at times, especially in the central
basin.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Saunders

NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion