795 FXUS63 KIWX 231741 AFDIWXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 141 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An active weather period will continue through Thursday with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected at this time.
- High temperatures will range from 70 to around 80 degrees, with lows in the 50s and 60s.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A line of showers and thunderstorms has been slowly sagging southeast ahead of a stationary front that is draped across Lower Michigan southwestward into northern Illinois. This activity will continue to progress across northern Indiana this afternoon and evening and eventually into northwest Ohio tonight. There is decent instability of around 1500 J/kg, but shear is weak, so severe weather is not expected. However, small hail will be possible in some of the more robust storms.
An upper low over the northern Great Lakes will then start to drop south tonight and interact with a stronger shortwave moving up from the southwest into the Ohio Valley. This will be a focus for heavier rain on Wednesday, mainly southeast of US 24. The shortwave will move east of the area during the afternoon, but the upper trough axis will still be over the region, allowing northerly low-level flow to usher in cooler air, and highs will struggle to reach 70 degrees. The low will continue to impact the region on Thursday with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Dry conditions will return Friday through the middle of next week as large scale troughing shifts east and high pressure builds back into the middle of the country. Mild temperatures can then be expected over the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
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.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Showers and isolated storms will remain in the vicinity of KSBN this afternoon near a weak mid level trough and sfc boundary. This boundary and/or any outflows are expected to near KFWA by late this afternoon and evening with chances for a few showers or storms by this time. Mainly VFR outside of any convection otherwise at each terminal into this evening, with lingering MVFR stratocu at KFWA likely mixing out by TAF issuance.
A low pressure system, currently over the Central Plains, ejects east through the OH Valley later tonight into Wednesday morning with a period of rain likely clipping KFWA with at least MVFR conditions. Lower confidence at KSBN with the bulk of the moisture potentially bypassing south.
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.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None.
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DISCUSSION...Cobb AVIATION...Steinwedel
NWS IWX Office Area Forecast Discussion