Athol, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

082
FXUS61 KALY 172357
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
757 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.UPDATE...
As of 755 pm EDT...This update is based on the radar and
satellite imagery to increase clouds south and east of the
western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks. Isolated showers
continue near the southeast Catskills, southern Berkshires and
Litchfield Hills. These will continue to diminish towards
midnight, as the upper low slowly drifts away. The PoPs were
retooled close to the radar trends and latest CAMS in timing.
Some patchy fog may develop mainly south and east of the Capital
Region...and also near Lake George with lows in the 50s with
some mid-upper 40s over the Adirondack Park.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated rain showers will impact the the Mid Hudson Valley,
Litchfield Hills, Berkshires, and southern Greens early tonight
across eastern New York and western New England as a low
pressure system off the coast continues to move northeast into
tomorrow. High pressure builds back in tomorrow. Dry conditions
persist through this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As a low pressure system continues to move along the East Coast
today, isolated rain showers continue to move north and east
across western New England, the Mid-Hudson Valley, southern
Taconics, and southeastern Catskills this afternoon and evening.
Very light precipitation amounts have been observed this
afternoon between a trace and 0.01 inches. These precipitation
amounts are on trend with any shower activity today and tonight.
Patchy fog could develop tonight across western New England if
skies clear tonight, but will be dependent on cloud coverage.
Otherwise, dry conditions continue across eastern New York and
western New England. A cold front is still on track to progress
eastward on Thursday night into Friday bringing relief from the
above normal high temperatures we`ve been observing this week.
High temperatures on Friday range in the 60s across the southern
Adirondacks and in the upper 70s across the Mid-Hudson Valley.
Surface high pressure returns to eastern New York and western
New England continuing our dry conditions trend from Friday
through Monday. For Friday night into Saturday morning, clear
skies overhead and calm winds will help contribute for
Frost/Freeze conditions across Hamilton and northern Herkimer
counties on Saturday morning. We`ll continue to monitor trends
for low temperatures and winds as Saturday gets closer for the
potential of any headlines. High temperatures gradually warm
from the 60s to the upper 70s and low 80s by Tuesday next week.
For beyond Monday, lots of uncertainty with ensemble forecast
model guidances for if dry conditions persist or an upper level
shortwave moves through bringing low chances of rain shower
activity. Overnight low temperatures range in the 50s and 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18z Thu...VFR conditions begin the TAF cycle with mid
and high clouds at KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU. The isolated showers
will continue to diminish, as we kept VCSH groups in for
KPOU/KPSF towards are just after 06Z/Thu. Lower clouds in the
MVFR range will likely develop at KPOU/KPSF after 06Z/Thu. If
the clouds thin some, then a period of IFR/LIFR mist/fog and
stratus may occur at KPSF 08-12Z/Thu and we incorporated a TEMPO
group. KPOU stratus in the 2-3 kft AGL range is possible.
Further north, some IFR/LIFR mist or fog may form at KGFL after
07Z/Thu and we used a TEMPO group for LIFR conditions. The
fog/stratus should dissipate between 11Z-14Z/Thu with VFR
conditions returning to all the TAF sites with a few-sct cumulus
and cirrus. The winds will be variable in direction at 4 KT or
less to calm tonight. They will be from the west/northeast at 7
KT or less tomorrow, except at KGFL where they will be
south/southwest at 7 KT or less.
Outlook...
Thursday Night to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
As we continue to experience dry conditions across eastern New
York and western New England, Friday and Saturday have low
concerns for fire weather. A cold front is still on track to
move through Thursday night and Friday from east to west. Behind
the front, winds could gust between 13-18 mph. Minimum relative
humidity values decrease on Friday into the upper 30s to low
40s behind the front. Temperatures also decrease behind the
front to near seasonal and chilly for Saturday. While lower
minimum relative humidity values are forecasted for Saturday
ranging in the mid 20s to mid 30s, winds will be calm to light
and variable up to 5 mph.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wasula
SYNOPSIS...Webb/Wasula
DISCUSSION...Webb
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...Webb

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion