Ashland, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

645
FXUS61 KCAR 291742
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
142 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area tonight. High pressure will build
down from the northwest Tuesday into Wednesday...crest over the
area Thursday...then slide south of the region Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A steep ridge over central Canada will support strengthening
high pressure over the Hudson bay region tonight. This high will
push a cold front through the area from south to north tonight.
Spotty showers may be across the north this evening as the
front pushes in. Otherwise, the frontal passage will be mainly
dry. Cooler air will begin pushing into the area from the north
overnight.
High pressure will continue building in from the northwest on
Tuesday bringing gusty northwesterly winds and chilly air under a
sunny to partly cloudy sky with more clouds over the north where
some stratocumulus will be present.
Tuesday night will turn out clear to partly cloudy and chilly with
the gradient likely strong enough to maintain a breeze overnight as
high pressure continues to build in. A few patchy stratocumulus may
linger across the north.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level s/wv will be digging over eastern Canada on Wednesday
with the possibility of a stray shower early. Northerly flow likely
to keep mostly cloudy skies under low-level stratocu acrs the north
through the morning hours before drier air moves in late. Expect
that winds will gust to 25-30 mph with mixing up toward H8. Temps
will be in the lwr 50s acrs the north to around 60 over
Downeast with cold air advection continuing.
Upr ridge will slowly be building in Wednesday night with winds
relaxing overnight. Though eastern and southern regions may stay
mixed cannot rule out decoupling acrs the northern and western
valleys overnight. Temps should be able to drop into the 20s over
the coldest locations with lower 30s north and around 40 south.
Widespread frost north of Bangor may occur depending on timing of
high. Patchy river valley and steam fog possible over the north
Thursday morning.
Mostly sunny skies are expected for Thursday as an extended stretch
of dry wx begins. Temps will be warmer as high builds offshore
with highs around 60 north and lower 60s south.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry weather continues through Saturday with high pressure at both
the surface and upper levels. Storm track looks to shift south
Saturday night and Sunday with an isolated shower over the far north
though most guidance is not sold on this solution. Temps look to
moderate to above normal values through next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
VFR conditions are expected tonight, Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Winds will be W around 5 across the north and N around 5 over
the south tonight. Winds Tuesday will be NW around 12 Kt and
gusty, and NW around 5 kt Tuesday night.
SHORT TERM:
Wednesday...MVFR cigs possible at northern Aroostook terminals
early. N 5-15kts with gust to 25kts in the afternoon.
Wednesday night...VFR, though may see IFR vsbys at PQI and HUL late.
N 5-10kts.
Thursday-Friday...VFR. NW 5-10kts becoming SW Thursday night.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
Winds will be below SCA tonight through Tuesday night. Swell
from Hurricane Humberto will build to around 4 ft late tonight,
5 ft late Tuesday and 6 to 7 ft Tuesday night.
SHORT TERM: Seas will range from 3 to 8 feet early increasing to 5
to 9 feet overnight in long period southerly swell from distant
Hurricane Humberto. Swells continue through Thursday before
seas drop below small craft levels in the evening. NW winds will
be at marginal conditions Wednesday and Wednesday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns will continue Tuesday as dry gusty winds
push down from the north. Winds will be breezy at about 10 to 15
mph with gusts up to 20 mph in combination with RH values at a
minimum of around 35 to 40%. RH increases on Wednesday then
decreases again late week.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...Bloomer/Buster
Marine...Bloomer/Buster
Fire Weather...Bloomer

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion