Arnold Afb, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

360
FXUS64 KOHX 240020
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
720 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 702 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- Medium to high rain and thunderstorm chances through Thursday.
  Low threat for severe storms, a few could produce strong winds
  and heavy downpours.
- Minor flooding from heavy rain possible.
- Warm and dry weather returns Friday and continues through next
  week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 702 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The storm of the afternoon has tracked across Perry, Lewis, and
northern Lawrence counties. The cloud tops have warmed over the
last 30-60 minutes but the storm continues to pose a small hail
and gusty wind threat. Rainfall has been heavy with that activity
with a swath of MRMS rainfall estimates of 2-3" over the last 3
hours. CAMS have the southern activity slowly weakening while the
blob of showers and storms coming into the western part of the CWA
moves east through the overnight hours. We`ll have to keep an eye
on the potential for some localized flooding over night and on
Wednesday as additional showers and storms move over recently
saturated soils.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A few scattered showers and thunderstorms linger this afternoon
as our mid-level trough remains overhead. Current satellite
imagery is showing some breaks in cloud cover over the CWA as our
morning storms exit Middle TN to the south. Our daytime heating
is running a little behind schedule due to all the clouds and rain
we saw this morning. Latest CAMs show minimal storm development
through the afternoon, likely due to the delay in solar heating.
That said, there will be some storms that manage to develop due to
our marginal environment. Latest analysis shows mixed layer CAPE
between 500-1000 J/kg, mid-level lapse rates around 6 C/km, and
bulk shear around 30 kts. Some storms will have the potential to
become strong, producing heavy rainfall, strong winds, and
lightning. Not expecting any widespread severe activity through
the afternoon.
Tonight, more storms move in Middle TN with a warm front passage.
Latest CAMs have been struggling with storms progression, but
latest few runs are narrowing down on storms mowing into our NW
after 02z and continuing into Wednesday morning. These storms
will have a wind threat, with potential gusts between 40-60 mph
with strongest cells. Additionally, with saturated soils in place,
we will have to monitor the potentially for any localized
flooding from heavy rainfall as these storms move through. PWATs
were sitting around 1.59 inches at this mornings balloon launch,
and are forecasted to be around 1.90 inches tonight.
Wednesday afternoon looks to offer the best chance for potential
severe storms with the trailing cold front and a more favorable
environment. Mid-level flow will be increasing and should offer
better lift to maintain storms.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Storm continue through early Thursday morning as our frontal
boundary moves through the area. Post frontal showers will likely
linger around Thursday morning, before conditions dry out through
Friday. A dry pattern then takes hold as high pressure builds
over the region. This will bring clearing skies and warm
temperatures back to Middle TN through next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Scattered showers and storms are moving into western middle TN
right now that will bring MVFR to IFR impacts to terminals
through the evening. Showers are anticipated to linger into the
overnight hours. A low MVFR cloud deck will move in around 10Z
with pockets of IFR cigs possible. Low cigs will linger into the
afternoon hours Wednesday with additional thunderstorm activity
expected. Confidence in coverage and timing at this point are
low; PROB30s have been included in the taf to capture this
uncertainty.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      70  83  68  82 /  60  80  80  50
Clarksville    69  83  65  81 /  80  80  70  40
Crossville     64  78  64  75 /  30  70  80  70
Columbia       69  83  67  81 /  50  80  70  50
Cookeville     66  79  65  76 /  40  80  80  60
Jamestown      66  78  64  75 /  50  70  80  70
Lawrenceburg   67  82  66  80 /  40  80  70  50
Murfreesboro   69  82  67  81 /  50  80  80  50
Waverly        67  81  64  78 /  80  80  80  40
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......Reagan
SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Baggett

NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion