Arlington, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

805
FXUS64 KFWD 240538
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1238 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front is currently moving through North Texas, increasing
  storm chances across much of the region later tonight into
  Wednesday morning. Localized flooding and gusty winds will be
  possible.
- Near normal temperatures will return today through Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Night/
Our well-advertised cold front is currently pushing through the
northern half of the DFW Metroplex and will continue its trek
southeastward through the remainder of the night and into
Wednesday morning. Several clusters of thunderstorms are currently
ongoing: 1. Northeast TX on the nose of a 20-30 kt LLJ, 2. Along
the Red River near the 850mb frontal surface, and 3. Across
western Central Texas near the intersection of the dryline and
cold front. These areas will favor additional thunderstorm
development over the next several hours before a more widespread
round of showers and thunderstorms arrives near and after daybreak
Wednesday morning. As a mid-level vorticity maxima ejects over the
Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma early Wednesday morning,
another wave of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected
to develop over much of North and Central Texas generally along
and south of the I-20 corridor near the frontal zone. Expect
precipitation west of I-35 after 5AM, reaching the Metroplex
around 7-8AM, and shifting toward eastern Central Texas and the
Brazos Valley by late morning. Severe weather is not likely,
however a few stronger cores capable of producing small hail and
frequent lightning will remain possible. A few locations along and
east of I-35 may also pick up 3+" of rainfall by the time
rainfall ends Wednesday afternoon.
The cold front will push toward the Texas Gulf Coast by early
Wednesday afternoon with rainfall exiting our forecast area from
northwest to southeast by 3-4PM Wednesday. In the wake of the
frontal passage, partly sunny skies and much cooler afternoon
highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s will sprawl across North and
Central Texas. With prevailing northerly surface winds and
clearing skies, expect temperatures to finally dip into the low to
mid 60s region-wide Wednesday night. A few rural locations west
of I-35 may even dip into the upper 50s by Thursday morning.
Langfeld
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday and Beyond/
Pleasant early fall weather with highs in the 80s and mostly sunny
skies will prevail through the remainder of the work week. A slow
warm-up is expected into the weekend with a few locations west of
I-35 approaching 90 degrees by Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows
will fall into the 60s region-wide each night.
Langfeld
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/
A cold front currently stretches across the northern half of the
Metroplex with northwesterly winds at all terminals minus KGKY.
This frontal boundary will continue its trek southeastward through
the night and into Wednesday morning reaching KACT around 13Z-14Z.
Expect post-frontal MVFR cigs to fill in across much of the
region after 10Z. These cigs will scatter out by midday Wednesday.
Showers and storms are currently ongoing near the Red River and
also across parts of western Central Texas. KACT and the D10
terminals should avoid any precipitation impacts through the
remainder of the night until another wave of widespread
precipitation develops around daybreak Wednesday morning. -SHRA
and VCTS are likely in the Metroplex in between 12Z-16Z Wednesday
morning with rainfall and occasional lightning developing near
KACT in the 14Z-18Z timeframe. All precipitation should exit to
the southeast by 18Z-19Z Wednesday afternoon.
Langfeld
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  82  65  83  64 /  80  60   5   0   0
Waco                74  82  65  83  61 /  50  70  20   5   0
Paris               70  80  62  80  59 /  80  50   5   5   0
Denton              68  82  61  83  58 /  80  50   5   0   0
McKinney            70  81  62  82  60 /  80  60   5   0   0
Dallas              72  83  66  83  64 /  80  70   5   0   0
Terrell             71  81  63  82  60 /  80  70  10   0   0
Corsicana           74  84  66  84  63 /  60  80  10   5   0
Temple              74  84  65  85  60 /  30  70  30   5   0
Mineral Wells       69  84  61  84  58 /  80  60   5   0   0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion