Apopka, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

858
FXUS62 KMLB 211853
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
253 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
- A High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through
  early this week.
- Increased shower and storm chances (40-70%) forecast Monday and
  Tuesday as moisture increases northward across the area.
- Near normal temperatures through Tuesday, climbing slightly
  above normal mid to late week with peak heat indices ranging
  from 98 to 103 degrees.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Currently-Tonight...We had a few reports today of "fair-weather"
funnel clouds that developed briefly with showers as they approached
closer to the coast this morning. Environment has been generally
favorable for these funnel clouds to develop due to the onshore flow
and relatively lighter winds (mostly less than 12 knots) below 700mb
observed in this morning`s sounding at the Cape. Can`t rule out
additional isolated funnel cloud development and maybe a brief
waterspout across the nearshore waters through the afternoon.
However, any showers will weaken as they approach the coast through
late afternoon due to subsidence behind the diffuse east coast sea
breeze. This boundary may lead to isolated shower development across
the interior as it shifts westward. Still, rain chances remain quite
low around 20% for most areas, and 30% across the southern Treasure
Coast as deeper moisture across south FL begins to build northward
into this region.
Moist air mass, with PW values of 2 inches, gradually builds farther
northward into southern portions of east central FL overnight. This
combined with low level onshore flow may lead to an increase in
showers and even isolated storm development across the Treasure
Coast late this evening into the overnight hours. Rain chances
increase to 30-40 percent across this region, and any persistent
heavier showers or storms could lead to locally heavy rainfall of
1-3". Farther north along the coast isolated onshore moving
showers will continue to be possible, with PoPs around 20 percent.
Across the interior, conditions are forecast to remain dry.
Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 70s inland and mid to
upper 70s along the coast.
Monday-Tuesday...Low level onshore winds continue but veer to the
east-northeast as high pressure pushes offshore the eastern U.S.
coast early this week. An approaching S/W trough in the mid to upper
levels will then switch winds more south-southwesterly aloft,
dragging deeper moisture (PW values of 2-2.2") northward across
central FL. This will lead to an increase in rain chances, with
scattered to numerous showers and storms developing mainly during
the afternoon and evening hours. However, a weak onshore flow will
continue the potential for isolated to scattered showers and
potentially a storm or two along the coast. Greatest convective
coverage each afternoon/evening looks to focus near to south of
Orlando where greater moisture resides. PoPs range from 30-40% north
of Orlando on Monday and 50-60% south, and then rise to 50-60%
across all of east central FL on Tuesday.
Drier air aloft will erode as moisture continues to increase through
early this week, and temps aloft at 500mb look to remain near normal
for this time of year around -7 to -8C. However, there could still
see be a few stronger storms that develop each day. Main threats
will be strong wind gusts to 40 mph, occasional to frequent
lightning strikes and heavy downpours. Weak steering winds will
allow for slower storm motion and potential for locally heavy
rainfall of 1-3". Highs will continue to remain within a few degrees
of normal, ranging from the mid to upper 80s at the coast and upper
80s to low 90s inland. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
A long period swell from distant TC Gabrielle arrives at area
beaches on Monday and continues through Tuesday, which will keep a
high risk of life-threatening rip currents at area beaches. Take
this into account if heading to the coast early this week, as
entering the water will be highly discouraged!
Wednesday-Saturday...(Modified Previous Discussion) S/W trough aloft
weakens as it pushes across FL midweek. Cutoff low aloft across the
central U.S. then evolves to a large mid to upper level trough
across the eastern U.S. into late week/early weekend. This will
shift a cold front southeastward toward FL Friday into Saturday.
High pressure east of the Mid-Atlantic coast will maintain an
onshore flow into midweek, but is forecast to be relatively light
and weak. Deeper moisture shifts east, but still enough remains to
keep scattered showers and storms in the forecast each day through
late week, with PoPs around 30-50% Wednesday and 30-40% Thursday and
Friday. Light southwest flow returns on Friday ahead of the
approaching front, turning onshore in the afternoon along the coast.
By Saturday, a band of higher moisture (PW > 2") pools along and
ahead of the approaching cold front. The timing of this front
remains unclear. Furthermore, its behavior as it reaches Florida is
more uncertain, but models do indicate the potential of it stalling
over north-central Florida through the remainder of the weekend.
Thus, rain chances generally increase areawide on Saturday (maybe
Sunday, too). With increased upper level support, we`ll have to keep
an eye on the potential for a couple stronger storms as well.
A warming trend is anticipated mid to late week, as more sun and
lesser overall cloud cover supports afternoon temperatures mostly in
the low 90s, but some mid 90s over the interior are possible. Peak
heat indices Wednesday-Friday will reach 98-103 degrees, so it is
something to keep in mind for any outdoor work or activities.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
High pressure builds offshore the eastern U.S. coast early this
week, with winds veering to the E/NE and remaining predominately
onshore through midweek. Wind speeds forecast to remain below 15
knots. By late week, winds relax even more and become a little
more variable, but an onshore flow develops each afternoon/evening
behind the inland moving sea breeze. Swells from distant TC
Gabrielle will lead to building seas up to 3-5 feet Mon and up to
6 feet offshore Volusia and Brevard counties on Tuesday, leading
to poor boating conditions over this portion of the waters.
Additionally, longer periods of 11-12 sec with these swells will
lead to hazardous boating conditions at inlets during the outgoing
tide through early week.
Seas will then gradually fall back to 3-4 feet Wed and 2-3 feet Thu-
Fri. Moisture builds back northward across the area through early
this week, with coverage of showers and storms increasing, becoming
scattered to numerous across the waters. Deeper moisture then shifts
eastward into mid to late week with shower and storm coverage closer
to normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions persist through today into the overnight hours.
Dry areawide through tonight, with a low chance for some onshore-
moving showers at the coastal terminals. Confidence remains too
low to include VCSH. Breezy and gusty ENE winds continue, with
gusts up to 20 knots possible. Winds become lighter overnight
around 5 knots and pick back up to 10 knots after 15Z. VCSH
possible tomorrow morning from TIX southward, with greater
coverage of showers and storms possible tomorrow afternoon across
the interior as the ECSB moves inland. There are no immediate VIS
or CIG concerns anticipated through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  87  74  87 /  20  30  30  50
MCO  73  92  75  91 /  10  50  20  60
MLB  76  87  75  87 /  20  50  40  60
VRB  75  88  74  89 /  30  60  40  70
LEE  72  90  74  90 /  10  30  20  50
SFB  73  90  75  90 /  10  40  20  60
ORL  74  90  75  90 /  10  40  20  60
FPR  74  88  73  89 /  30  60  40  70
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion