719 FXUS61 KALY 262327 AFDALYAREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 727 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS... An approaching cold front will bring a few showers to the southern Adirondacks tonight, otherwise mainly dry conditions are expected. Low pressure passing south of the region could bring a few showers Saturday night to areas mainly south and east of Albany. Otherwise, mainly dry weather will dominate through next week as high pressure remains in control.
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.DISCUSSION... Key Messages:
- Low chance of rain showers (20-30%) Saturday night/early Sunday mainly south/east of Albany, otherwise mainly dry conditions through late next week.
- Above normal temperatures through Tuesday, trending to below normal by mid/late next week.
As of 135 PM EDT, isolated/scattered showers and sprinkles are occurring mainly north of I-90 in association passing upper level trough/cold pool. Cloud/shower coverage should decrease from west to east later this afternoon as subsidence increases in the wake of the trough. Otherwise, a bit breezy at times with temps ranging from the lower/mid 70s within the Hudson Valley except around 80 across the mid Hudson Valley, with mid 60s to around 70 across higher terrain.
Clear to partly cloudy skies tonight, although a few showers may persist across the SW Adirondacks as a secondary cold front approaches from the northwest. Patchy fog will develop after midnight, especially across portions of the upper and mid Hudson Valley regions. Lows mainly in the 50s, with some 40s possible across portions of the southern Adirondacks/upper Hudson Valley.
Mainly dry for Saturday, although high/mid level clouds will increase in the afternoon. A wave of low pressure tracking south/east of the region may allow for some showers to reach portions of the SE Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT Saturday night. Will have to watch northern extent of shower coverage, as forcing from upper level jet max translating into Quebec and attendant right entrance region tracks across the region, possibly allowing showers to expand slightly farther north/west than current NBM PoPs suggest. Otherwise, high temps Saturday mainly in the 70s with Saturday night lows in the 50s.
Fair weather is then expected Sunday through most of next week. Temps will likely remain above normal through at least Tuesday, with highs 75-80 in valleys and upper 60s/lower 70s across higher elevations. In fact, Sunday high temps may reach the lower 80s within much of the Hudson River Valley as latest NBM probs for MaxT > 80 are 80-90%+. Overnight lows through Tuesday morning in the 40s and 50s. A cold front looks to drop southward late Tuesday into Wednesday. Moisture looks limited, so expecting just a wind shift at this time followed by cooler temperatures. Highs Wednesday-Friday mainly in the 60s in valleys and 50s across higher terrain, with overnight lows mainly in the 30s to lower 40s, though some 20s will be possible across the southern Adirondacks/southern VT.
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.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00z/Sun...VFR conditions are expected for the upcoming TAF period outside of any patchy fog tonight. Most of the shower activity at KGFL has ended. Highest confidence for fog is at KGFL with moderate confidence at KPSF and lower confidence at KALB/KPOU. Will monitor trends and amend if necessary throughout the night. Wind will become calm tonight then be variable at around 5 kt on Saturday.
Outlook...
Saturday Night-Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.
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SYNOPSIS...KL DISCUSSION...KL AVIATION...Rathbun
NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion