Albion, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

135
FXUS61 KBUF 301047
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
647 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will guarantee fair dry weather through
the entire week and into the coming weekend. A dry cold front will
bring a more seasonable airmass to the region tonight through
Thursday with some risk for nocturnal frost at the higher
elevations. Temperatures then climb back above normal later in
the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The center of a strong 1033mb sfc high over northern Ontario will
slowly drift eastward to Quebec across James Bay through tonight,
ensuring fair dry weather remains in tact across the forecast area.
A dry cold front is currently making its way southward through the
region this morning, though for most today this will just result in
a northerly breeze, high temps a few degrees cooler compared to the
past few days, and cirrus stemming from TS Imelda slowly receding
southward.
CAA behind the front will bring low temps in the mid 40s tonight,
with upper 30s possible across the hilltops and east of Lake
Ontario. Should still be enough of a gradient wind in place to
preclude areas of frost from developing, though can`t completely
rule out patchier frost in some of the higher elevations inland from
the lakes.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Sprawling area of Canadian surface high pressure will be centered
just east of James Bay to open the period Wednesday morning. The
high will shift southeast across southern Quebec through Wednesday
evening before settling across eastern NY and New England later
Wednesday night through Thursday night. This will allow our stretch
of dry weather to continue, but will deliver a northeasterly flow of
much cooler air to the region. However, with the much above normal
temperatures that were in place prior to the passage of the cold
front, this will just bring daytime highs back down near normal.
This will be a bit of a different story for overnight lows with high
pressure becoming centered over eastern NY/western New England by
the second half of Wednesday night. Combining the position of the
high with light winds, clear skies, and a very dry airmass...expect
temperatures to tumble Wednesday night possibly bringing about the
necessity for frost, and possibly even freeze headlines for portions
of the eastern Lake Ontario region where the western fringe of the
core of the coolest air will be located closer to the center of the
surface high.
As the surface high shifts into southern New England, a southerly
low-level return flow will become established Thursday into Thursday
night with weak WAA ensuing. There may also be some mid/upper level
clouds passing across the area Thursday night, with both of these
factors substantially lessening the threat of frost, although some
patchy frost will still be possible across Lewis County...likely
dependent on timing of aforementioned cloud cover.
Valley fog will be possible during the overnights through mid
mornings, especially across the Southern Tier.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through the period bringing
continued dry weather. Mid and upper level ridging will build aloft
through the period. With surface high pressure centered just south
of New England through the period and rising heights/increasing
subsidence aloft, expect another period of well above normal
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread VFR will prevail through tonight as strong surface high
pressure extends across the region from the north. The shield of SCT
cirrus extending from the tropical activity in the western Atlantic
will gradually recede southward through the morning hours. Any
localized IFR/LIFR vsby restrictions in fog across the S. Tier
valleys or SE or Lake Ontario will dissipate by 13-14z this morning.
Otherwise, a dry cold front moving south through the region will
cause northeasterly breezes to increase today. Occasional gusts
around 20kts will be possible during the afternoon.
Fog development should be very limited tonight with a light gradient
wind persisting over the region.
Outlook...
Wednesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Valley fog and local IFR
possible each late night through the morning hours.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong area of surface high pressure will build east into Quebec
through tonight, then shift southeast across New England through the
rest of the week. A trough of low pressure aloft to the east of this
high will cause a dry cold front to move across the lakes from the
north today, causing northeasterly winds to increase. This will
cause SCA conditions to first develop along the southern shoreline
of Lake Ontario, with Lake Erie then following.
The tightening pressure gradient between the high to the north and
the tropical weather environment in the western Atlantic will cause
wind speeds to further increase this evening on both lakes. This
will maintain SCA conditions on both lakes well into Wednesday and
Wednesday night as outlined below.
Wind direction will start to become more easterly and relax as the
sfc high to the north begins to move SE into Quebec later Wednesday
night. The choppier wave action will subsequently subside and become
directed more offshore through the night, with light to modest
breezes and minimal wave action then expected Thursday and
especially on Friday.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement from 11 AM EDT this morning through
     late Wednesday night for NYZ003-004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
         Thursday for LEZ040.
         Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
         Wednesday for LEZ041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM
         EDT Wednesday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT
         Thursday for LOZ043.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
         Thursday for LOZ044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PP
NEAR TERM...PP
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion