Afton, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

251
FXUS64 KLUB 020314
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1014 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1013 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Dry and unseasonably warm temperatures expected through the
   weekend, with highs at least 10 degrees above seasonal
   normals.
- A pattern change is possible early next week, which may bring
   slight cooler weather and increased rain chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1013 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Well above seasonal normal temperatures continue today. The upper
ridging has built over the region and will remain overhead through
today at the same time as upper troughing swings onto the CONUS just
off the coast of California. Height and thicknesses will slightly
increase today keeping high temperatures ~10 degrees above seasonal
normal with much of the region will experience highs in the 90s. To
start the day, winds will be light and from the southwest, however
will shift to the south during the late afternoon hours in response
to the development of a lee side low over Colorado. Some models
indicate the possibility for high base convection developing mainly
off the Caprock early this morning and then again later this
afternoon and evening. If these high base storms do develop,
measurable rain is not expected and will most likely be virga
showers. Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain dry today.
Tonight will be quiet with mostly clear skies. Similar to the highs
for today, low temperatures tonight will be ~10 degrees warmer than
seasonal normal in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1013 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Upper ridging will remain above the region Friday as upper troughing
swings over western CONUS, however as the trough continues to
approach the region, the upper ridging will flatten. Heights and
thicknesses will gradually decrease as the trough approaches the
region effectively cooling temperatures. However, temperatures will
remain ~5-10 degrees above normal through the weekend with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Southwesterly flow aloft will prevail
through early next week as the upper trough becomes positively
tilted over the Intermountain West. Seasonal normal temperatures and
precipitation chances could return Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold
front is progged to track southward through the region. However,
timing and how far south the front treks is uncertain at the moment,
therefore NBM temperatures and PoPs were left as is.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1013 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Continued VFR with light SSW winds through Thursday.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...93

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion