Ada, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

837
FXUS64 KOUN 191109
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
609 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 608 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- Scattered showers and storms early this morning, with the best
   rain chances gradually moving south and eastward through the
   morning hours. A few storms may be capable of producing strong
   to damaging wind gusts and hail.
- Above-normal temperatures through the weekend before
   potentially cooling down to near-normal by the middle of next
   week.
- Daily rain and storm chances continue through the weekend and
   into most of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Mid-level water vapor satellite imagery and RAP analysis shows the
upper low spinning over the Northern Dakotas. Another shortwave is
pushing eastward across the area on the southern periphery of the
trough axis, which will aid in supporting this morning`s convection.
Additionally, a weak 850mb boundary draped across northern Oklahoma
has become the focal area of scattered showers and storms early this
morning. Instability is relatively weak with MUCAPE of 500-1000
J/kg, which will support some lightning activity. Northwesterly flow
aloft will help to push storms southeastward through Friday morning.
The environment will be a bit more unstable early this morning
across the southern half of Oklahoma with MUCAPE values in excess of
1500 J/kg and bulk shear of 30-40 knots. Thus, as storms push
southward, the potential for a strong to severe storm increases with
large hail and damaging wind gusts possible.
With the departing trough, precipitation chances are expected to
decrease from north to south this morning with a lull in any
activity this afternoon and evening. However, another shortwave will
eject southeastward across the Plains on the back side of the
departing upper low and bring increased precipitation chances again
late tonight (around Midnight and later) across northern Oklahoma.
With northwesterly flow aloft, the storms will spread southeastward
into central and eastern Oklahoma during the early morning hours
Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Heading into the weekend, the flow aloft will become more zonal with
the northeastward ejecting upper trough. A disturbance embedded in
the zonal flow, along with modest instability and above-average
temperatures will give way to increased widespread afternoon
scattered showers and storms. A few storms may be capable of
producing strong to damaging winds with a relatively dry sub-cloud
layer and DCAPE values in excess of 1000-1500 J/kg.
This shower and thunderstorm activity may persist overnight Saturday
into Sunday with additional forcing from another shortwave in the
flow aloft. Similar to the last few days, widespread scattered
storms over the weekend will not mean that everyone sees rain. Mid-
level cloud cover will increase Sunday, which in conjunction with
any precipitation will help to keep temperatures a few degrees cooler
than Saturday across portions of northern and central Oklahoma.
However, above-average temperatures are still likely this weekend
with highs ranging from the mid-80s to the mid-90s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Next week, mean ensemble guidance shows a continuation of daily rain
chances with a potential "cool" down by midweek and temperatures
hovering near-normal for this time of year (70s to 80s). Cluster
analysis shows roughly a 60% chance for a large-scale positively
tilted trough axis to bring a cold front and continued moisture by
mid-week. The greatest uncertainty lies in the exact timing and
strength of this system as deterministic and ensemble guidance has
varying solutions. The trends of this next system will continue to
be monitored through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Showers and storms will move out of the area this morning, with
mainly dry conditions then expected the rest of the period. Only
exception may be later tonight when additional showers and storms
could impact north-central Oklahoma. Otherwise, VFR conditions
along with light south or southeast winds are expected through
tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  70  89  67 /  10  10  30  50
Hobart OK         91  69  92  66 /  10   0  20  60
Wichita Falls TX  92  70  93  68 /  10   0  20  40
Gage OK           85  65  86  61 /  10  10  30  50
Ponca City OK     87  67  87  65 /   0  50  50  50
Durant OK         90  68  92  71 /  40   0  10  20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...08

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion