Poplar Ridge, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

095
FXUS61 KBGM 242349
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
749 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Frontal boundaries sweeping through the region during the next
couple of days will bring periods of rain to Central NY and
Northeast PA from tonight through Thursday evening. High
pressure will return partly to mostly sunny conditions this
weekend while attention then turns toward a couple of tropical
systems moving north along the East Coast.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rain chances will increase through this afternoon and tonight
as a warm front lifts into the region by Thursday morning. No
significant impacts are expected from this much needed rainfall
after prolonged dryness. As we progress deeper into the warm
sector on Thursday instability parameters and shear do
marginally come together for the potential for stronger
convection on Thursday. Can`t completely rule out strong
thunderstorm induced wind gusts focusing primarily from the
Catskills down into the northern Poconos corridor. This is also
the area where the highest axis of anomalous moisture is
depicted with PW anomalies around 2 SD. Probabilities suggest
high chances for more than an inch in this area with low-
moderate chances of exceeding 2 inches...but those values should
be isolated. River and smaller stream response will be slow to
this rainfall, but urban ponding in common low lying areas can`t
be ruled out.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Much of the steady rain activity will shift into New England on
Thursday night but lingering showers will remain in the forecast
until the supporting upper trough and surface cold front pass early
Friday. Broad scale synoptic drying appears to take shape in the
models on Friday...but with NW flow across Lake Ontario we`ll have
to remain vigilant for lower level cloudiness and the potential
for sprinkles lasting longer than indicated by the guidance in
CNY. Downslope flow into NEPA should make for a better day
overall in that part of our forecast area. The airmass behind
the cold front is not excessively cool therefore seasonal
temperatures are expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The bulk of ensemble data shows high pressure building into the
region with a fairly quiet period offering quite a bit of sunshine
and warm weather into early next week. Focus turns toward some model
guidance chaos as the predictions struggle to resolve a couple
potential tropical systems moving through the Western Atlantic.
Blended NBM guidance is playing the safe game by introducing low
probabilities for showers across NEPA on Saturday and Sunday, and
then again later Tuesday into Wednesday. Consensus among the
ensemble means suggests that heights in the northern stream are to
remain above average over the northeast with a tendency for
developing troughing over the Canadian Maritimes during this period
which should favor suppression of these tropical systems. Overall
confidence in this period is quite low and at the very least we`ll
have to be closely monitoring for northward surging of tropical
moisture plumes.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rain showers will continue to spread eastward tonight and
eventually lead to lower visibilities and ceilings. All
terminals will fall to at least IFR. There are some periods that
guidance favors LIFR ceilings and as well at most terminals.
There may be a break in shower activity early Thursday morning
but it will be brief and ceiling restrictions will remain in
place through the TAF period. AVP, ELM, and ITH may improve to
Fuel Alt/MVFR late Thursday afternoon as rain begins to move
out.
Winds will be southeasterly and breezy tonight. A front then
moves through and winds then become southwest to westerly by
Thursday afternoon. Behind the front, winds become calmer.
Outlook...
Thursday Night...Showers moving out; restrictions linger.
Friday through Monday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BTL

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion